LNG

Energy Aspects has pushed back its Qatari LNG ramp-up forecast by a further two weeks, now expecting a partial recovery from mid-August. Q3-26 loadings are seen at 5.4 million tons, down from 6.1 Mt previously, as markets price in elevated risk from prolonged Hormuz disruptions, though TTF is still unlikely to exceed €70/MWh over the balance of summer.

“Full exports from Arctic LNG 2 would crash the TTF,” Energy Aspects warns, arguing European gas markets would not be able to absorb the wave of additional supply without requiring US LNG shut-ins to balance.

Production in the Permian Shale, one of the largest U.S. unconventional oil and gas plays, is set to rise as the Matterhorn Express Pipeline ramps up facilitating greater gas flows to liquefaction facilities along the Gulf Coast.

Imports of Russian LNG into the EU have soared – regardless of sanctions – with most shipments headed to France, Spain and Belgium and a third of cargoes imported as spot trades. Analysts urge EU members states to prioritise on phasing out these flows.

Prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe’s most liquid gas trading hub, have risen due to a growing risk premium related to residual Russian flows or cold-weather events. The TTF Q1-25 contract is already pricing near the top of the coal–gas fuel-switching range in the power sector.

Egypt’s state energy company EGAS has reduced its LNG imports to the Ain Sokhna regas terminal, chartered from Hoegh LNG, by more than a third to 500 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/d). Situated east of Cairo, the Hoegh Gallon FSRU is on an interim charter from the Norwegian shipping company Hoegh, and had been originally destined for Australia.