Alaska LNG could become South Korea’s first U.S. investment
The Alaska LNG project has emerged as South Korea’s likely first U.S. investment under a $200 billion trade deal, with Seoul signalling a possible announcement in late August or early September.
U.S. feedgas flows to Mexico rise as Costa Azul LNG ramps up
Feedgas flows from the United States to Mexico are on pace for a record June as Energía Costa Azul LNG project prepares for export start-up. Sempra began producing LNG at the 3.25 mtpa terminal on June 4, with commercial exports due to begin in September.
Peace deal rumours set to slam oil, LNG futures
An US-Iran peace deal resolution is expected “very soon,” Pakistan’s foreign ministry says – which would hit future prices immediately – but physical LNG and oil flows, deliveries, and broader supply normalization would lag by weeks, Rystad Energy cautions.
Vietnam urged to enhance LNG-to-Power incentives
Investors are seeking better incentives for integrated LNG and power projects in Vietnam as guaranteed electricity offtake levels are still too low to make projects break even. Developers said Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with 25-year tenures or a higher minimum offtake level, ideally 85-90%, would help secure predictable cash flows and attract international lenders.
Supermajors to rein in buybacks if oil stays below $70
Lower oil prices are eroding profit margins of global oil and gas companies, forcing deeper structural cost cuts and threatening share buyback programs. If oil prices stay below $70 per barrel, supermajors’ free cash flow could plunge by up to 30 percent in 2026, Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Oil majors' fresh focus on upstream bolsters cash flows
Unfavourable market conditions for renewables and other low-carbon energy sources have prompted Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Eni to bolster their core upstream operations. Reserve replacement should support future cash flows, Fitch Ratings reckons.
LNG gets ‘hard to attract’ to Europe
European LNG buyers fail to significant attract more deliveries although prices were much higher in the first week of 2025 than early last year. “There is a stickiness in LNG trade flows to Asia,” Energy Aspects said, referring to structural demand growth and heavy demand for spot cargoes from less price-sensitive markets like Japan and South Korea.
Analysts at the London-based consultancy found that Asian LNG demand has so far only been growing by 6.0 million tons year-on year y in 2025, which is down from 16.1 Mt growth last year. But Europe still stays very reliant on the increments in global LNG supply to meet its minimum storage targets by end-October.
A price-sensitivity analysis on how much Asian gas markets can call on spot and divertible supply at different price levels, found that at $10–20 per MMBtu, a $1/MMBtu rise, equal to €3.24/MWh, in TTF prices only weakens non-European demand by 0.89 million tons per annum (mtpa).
“European prices are already near the top of the coal-to-gas fuel-switching range and we already expect Europe to just meet its storage targets, so a market tightening of 5 bcm (for example, from cold weather in Europe and Asia over Q1-25) could propel TTF prices up by around €13.50/MWh,” analysts commented.
Quick drawdown on inventories
Europe entered January with gas inventories at just 79.2 bcm, or 73% full – a decrease by 15.3 bcm y/y which makes it difficult to rebuilt stocks before the end of the gas year in October.
The fast-paced drawdown during the months of November and December 2024 had a substantial impact, considering lower Russian pipeline gas deliveries were not sufficiently offset by higher LNG deliveries and low demand. The stockdraw amounted to 25 bcm over the past two months, while Russian pipeline gas deliveries were 5.3 bcm, down from the five-year average of 18.2 bcm, while LNG receipts were up marginally to 22.6 bcm.
Analysts project Europe stocks to hit around 40 bcm (37% full) by end-March, anticipating further reductions in Russian pipeline gas supply through the first quarter of 2025 and gradually rising gas demand.
U.S. shale industry may "finally turn a profit"
Financing models of the U.S. shale oil & gas industry has for long been characterised by negative free cash flow as expectations of rising production and cost improvements led to continuous overspending in the sector. Over the last few month, however, IEA analysts have notice a “notable improvement in financial condition,” though the overall health of the industry remains fragile.
BG's Tanzania LNG plans boosted by high well flow rates
Viability of BG Group's planned LNG export project in Tanzania is boosted by higher-than-anticipated flow rates at a test well at its Mzia discovery, which reduce reservoir risk.
