Shipyard constraints in Asia could thwart LNG expansion
Limited shipbuilding capacity in South Korea and China could slow down a record expansion of global LNG supply. One of the industry’s dependencies – the ability to physically move gas – rests on a supply chain it cannot control and cannot quickly replicate, Ikram Elloumi, director of research at Wood Mackenzie warns.
ExxonMobil pulls offer for initial Golden Pass LNG cargoes
Start-up delays appear to have prompted ExxonMobil to withdraw an offer to sell two initial LNG cargoes from Golden Pass on the spot market. The terminal has reached only about one-third of its liquefaction capacity since production began in late March, according to LSEG data.
Vopak delays FID on South Africa LNG terminal to 2028
Dutch terminal operator Vopak has delayed its final investment decision (FID) on South Africa’s first LNG import facility until the first quarter of 2028. The decision follows a court order, halting state utility Eskom’s plans for a 3,000 MW LNG-fuelled power plant at Richards Bay.
Energy Transfer delays FID on Lake Charles LNG to Q1-2026
Energy Transfer has delayed its final investment decision (FID) on the $10.9 billion Lake Charles LNG export project to the first quarter of 2026, instead of year-end 2025 as intended earlier. This hold-up follows lengthy development stages, uncommitted volumes and rising concern over LNG oversupply risk.
Turbine shortages delay LNG-to-power projects in Southeast Asia
Lengthy equipment-order backlogs delay and inflate costs of LNG-fuelled power projects in Vietnam and the Philippines. Some turbine makers advise developers to plan 7-8 years ahead for turbine procurement.
Stable Russia-Ukraine peace deal undermines US LNG projects
Financial close on US LNG export projects could be at risk by a stable peace deal between Russian and Ukraine, analysts warn. Europe would subsequently rush to accommodate more Russian pipeline gas imports of up to 50 bcm per year, while the lifting of sanctions on Russian LNG would raise exports to 12 mtpa – undermining the economics of US LNG.
In the event of a ‘stable peace’, Wood Mackenzie expects European gas prices at the TTF trading hub to fall well below the US$8-9 per mmbtu that are forecast for 2028/29.
A collapse in TTF prices, in return, would lead to years of US LNG capacity underutilisation and delays to several expected FIDs on well-advanced LNG export projects.
US LNG projects may become collateral damage
As a knock effect, Henry Hub gas prices would plunge since the lower-than-expected LNG exports create a length in gas supply in the United States. This oversupply supports greater gas-burn for power generation and may well reduce wholesale electricity prices to the benefit of American households and industries.
But Wood Mac’s vice president of Gas and LNG research, Massimo Di-Odoardo warned that with an average of 25 mtpa of liquefaction capacity in the United States and Mexico at risk of underutilisation over the next five years, “US LNG would be the collateral damage,”
More shipments needed in event of no peace
On the other hand, a failure to reach an agreement would results in "stronger for longer" gas prices as even less Russian supply comes to market.
“A continuation of the war could see the EU double down on sanctions, pushing even harder to achieve its ambition of independence from Russian energy - banning LNG imports from the Yamal LNG project and the 15 bcm a year TurkStream pipeline,” Di-Odoardo noted.
This scenario strengthens the need for more LNG supply, with US and Qatar capitalising on more investment opportunities.
"The outcome of ongoing negotiations for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine remains highly uncertain,” he said, concluding: “All scenarios are possible, including potential combinations of them, however, recent development suggest a peace agreement where the US and EU take different approaches to lifting sanctions, appears more likely.”
