LNG

Security costs rather than freight fundamentals are increasingly determining LNG shipping economics. Owners face "between 6 and 10 million dollars for every single shipment" before vessels enter the Strait of Hormuz, simply to secure additional insurance cover, said Tom Beney, Senior Vice President of Ocean Freight at StoneX.

Limited shipbuilding capacity in South Korea and China could slow down a record expansion of global LNG supply. One of the industry’s dependencies – the ability to physically move gas – rests on a supply chain it cannot control and cannot quickly replicate, Ikram Elloumi, director of research at Wood Mackenzie warns.

Vietnam is relying more heavily on thermal coal as heightened security risks around the Strait of Hormuz adds another layer of risk for a market that is still scaling up its regas infrastructure, while the Ministry of Industry and Traded helped secure coal imports for power generation.

The decade of structurally cheap US gas is drawing to a close, with Henry Hub prices forecast to rise towards $5 per MMBtu by 2035 from below $3 per MMBtu, as LNG demand growth tightens domestic balances, Wood Mackenzie said.

Contract flexibility, strong demand and reliable project execution are bolstering credit profiles of US and Canadian LNG producers, Fitch Ratings said. Longer-term credit upside could fade as competition intensifies, build costs rise and demand visibility weakens, leaving producers reliant on tighter capital discipline and low-cost expansions, analysts warn.

Vietnamese authorities in Nghe An province are urging PV Power to accelerate development of the $2.25 billion Quynh Lap LNG-to-power project with a view to bringing the 1,500 MW plant into operation by 2030 – even as imported fuel costs weigh on profitability.

Rising renewable capacity and cheaper batteries are weakening the investment case for LNG import terminals and gas-fired generation, with Ember signalling out China as the clearest example of that shift.

Tehran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately after the US and Iran signed a memorandum to end the conflict in Versailles late on June 17 – earlier than planned. Oil and gas prices fell sharply on the news, and LNG benchmarks trimmed the geopolitical risk premium that has buoyed them since the conflict intensified.

Prospects that Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing could help reinstate direct US LNG imports to China are gaining traction, with LSEG data indicating that three carriers loaded in Louisiana could reach China within a month.

Numerous Japanese utilities have withheld full-year earnings guidance as the Middle East conflict drives up LNG costs and clouds fuel supply. Bloomberg reported that Asian LNG prices have surged 70%, exemplifying how exposed Japan’s power sector remains to the global gas market.