Supermajors are redirecting capital towards LNG and other core oil & gas businesses, while retrenching from energy transition-related investment. Majors with large US LNG positions – notably Shell, BP and TotalEnergies – benefit from wider export margins and rising demand in 2026.

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US-Israeli air strikes against Iran has exposed Asia’s vulnerability to imported LNG and the lack of energy self-sufficiency through domestically generated clean energy. China, India, Japan and South Korea account for 75% of oil and 59% of LNG flows through the chokepoint.

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Prices for fossil fuels and clean energy technologies are falling as overcapacity builds. “Oil prices have already come under pressure (…) and the same will soon be true in natural gas markets, as the wave of new LNG export projects start operations,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

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Energy import-dependent Japan has again lowered LNG-burn for power generation to the lowest levels in a decade due to high fuel prices and robust recovery of nuclear baseload power. Japan’s nuclear reactors generated the highest electricity output since the 2011 Fukushima disaster while gas-fired generation fell 25% in the first half this year.

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“The ships are ready, the fuels are missing,” Acceleron Industries summarizes the state of decarbonizing maritime transport. Investment is lagging as LNG offers higher returns than green hydrogen or ammonia.

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