LNG

Attention has fixed on the rotation of US cargoes from Europe to Asia, but a third destination has been quietly absorbing Atlantic supply. Counted by sailing date, US terminals despatched 20 cargoes to Egypt in June, double May's ten and the most in any month on record.

Europe's LNG intake fell about 16 percent in June, and reporting has placed the decline on lower US deliveries. The vessel record complicates that reading. US terminals loaded 151 cargoes in June, level with the 149 of May and above the 2025 monthly average of 136. Loadings did not fall. What changed was where the gas went.

Four LNG cargoes loaded from Sabine Pass LNG and Plaquemines LNG between 5 and 18 May initially signalled arrival in Tianjin, China. All four have since updated their declared destinations and are headed for South Korea and Japan instead.

Singapore has secured enough LNG from outside the Middle East to last through the end of this year, as state-owned buyer GasCo accelerated spot purchases to replace cargoes affected by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations are underway for long-term offtake from the US, Australia and Canada.

Buyers in the EU have been snapping up all LNG from Russia’s Yamal terminal they can secure, just month before a full EU ban on Russian gas exports will take effect at the start of 2027.

Canada's Whitecap Resources has agreed to deliver 50,000 MMBtu/day – equivalent of five LNG cargoes annually – to Centrica starting from April 2028, with pricing linked to Europe’s TTF benchmark.

Uniper has agreed to supply up to 0.5 mtpa of LNG to India’s Gujarat State Petroleum Corp (GSPC) under a 10-year sales and purchase agreement (SPA), starting January 2028. Cargoes will be shipped to LNG terminals on India's west coast, including Dahej and Mundra.

Freeport LNG Development, majority-owned by founder and CEO Michael Smith, has ramped down operations in the wake of Winter Storm Uri and is considering rescheduling cargoes to long-term buyers to accommodate a spike in US gas demand since the onset of this week’s massive winter storm.

Japan’s largest energy company JERA has signed a non-binding Heads of Agreement with Woodside Energy Trading Singapore to buy three LNG cargoes, or approximately 0.2 mtpa, during December to February to meet peakload power demand in the winter season. LNG from Australia will be shipped over a 5-years tenure starting from 2027.

The TTF needs to price higher at around €57/MWh for the balance of 2025– if European buyers want to succeed in attracting flexible LNG cargoes, as inventories are depleting fast. Reduced Norwegian pipeline gas flows could propel up TTF prices, analysts warn, as Europe lost its ability to further minimise power-sector gas demand.