LNG

LNG is driving the bulk of US gas demand growth with Gulf Coast capacity additions pushing exports from 15.5 billion cubic feet per day towards 25 Bcf/d by 2028. Henry Hub prices indicate healthy but tightening upstream‑to‑LNG margins from Haynesville, and especially Permian associated gas.

Construction of LNG terminals is slowing in Europe as gas consumption is forecast to fall by 15-20% between now and 2030. Germany has shelved some regas terminal projects while a French court ruled an FSRU at the port of Le Havre should be removed, partly due to low utilisation.

Economics of gas production in the Appalachian Basin will become more favourable by 2030 as LNG-related demand soars. Natural gas liquefied for export could more than double to 9.8 Tcf, or almost 27 bcf/d, in 2037.

Pakistan LNG Ltd (PLL) is looking to resell excess cargoes and considers storing tankers offshore. Excess term LNG deliveries could incur state energy companies nearly $400 million in losses, especially since the rapid solar PV build-out cuts short the need of burning gas for generating electricity.

Plans for Germany’s green hydrogen economy face serious delays due to uncertain future pricing and lagging infrastructure build-out, e.g. conversion of LNG import terminals and gas-fuelled power plants. Investment is slowly forthcoming: of the government’s targeted 10 GW new electrolyser capacity by 2030, only 1.6 GW has been instated so far.

“The hydrogen market is not scaling at the speed needed,” said Kerstin Andreae, chair of the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) when presenting a new report co-authored by the consultancy EY.

“Investors and developers need clear rules, support for infrastructure, and reliable pricing signals to move forward,” she stressed. In fact, green hydrogen, produced by electrolysis using renewable electricity, made up just 0.5% of total hydrogen output in Germany in 2023 – while the vast majority is still made from fossil fuels, primarily natural gas.

The ‘Energy Transition Progress Monitor 2025’ warns that slow progress on key hydrogen infrastructure and weak investment conditions are stalling the ramp-up of green hydrogen. The report, published on Monday, cites a “significant investment hurdle” caused by regulatory uncertainty, infrastructure gaps, and market risks.

Industrial demand declines

Fossil-based generation of both hydrogen and electricity is becoming a new phenomenon amid weakening industrial demand, particularly in key sectors such as refining, ammonia, methanol, and chlorine production. Despite these setbacks Germany is on track to meet its 2030 climate targets, though analysts stressed shortfalls remain in the transport and heating sectors.

The incoming federal government faces “tremendous pressure” to deliver results, BDEW underlined. Key policy priorities include speeding up permitting for renewable projects, aligning grid expansion with energy demand, and designing a new electricity market framework that rewards flexibility and low-carbon solutions.

Industry groups, meanwhile, want the government to reinvigorate hydrogen efforts. BDEW and more than a dozen other trade associations called for a “restart” in bilateral energy ties aimed at forming a European hydrogen alliance. The groups called for an overhaul of EU rules on green and low-carbon hydrogen, the rapid buildout of cross-border hydrogen infrastructure, and harmonized certification standards across the bloc.

A close partnership with France, they argued, could “inject decisive momentum” into Europe’s hydrogen strategy. Signatories to the joint statement included BDEW, the chemical industry association VCI, the automotive group VDA, the local utility association VKU, and the European hydrogen lobby Hydrogen Europe.