JKM-TTF spreads widen, opens arbitrage for US LNG to Asia
The arbitrage for flexible US LNG cargoes heading to Asia is open with spreads between the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) and the Dutch TTF widening, as the tepid recovery of Qatari and UAE LNG exports is unlikely to outpace rebounding Asian demand.
European LNG demand could fall by 17 mtpa in 2026 – Poten
Most European LNG buyers are expected to import less than anticipated due to higher prices and tighter markets, with Poten & Partners estimating around 17 mtpa of demand destruction this year, particularly in Italy and Belgium.
US LNG diverts to Asia as JKM-TTF arbitrage widens
Five US-loaded LNG cargoes have diverted from European or Egyptian destinations into the Pacific Basin in the four weeks through mid-May: the WilPride, SK Audace, Umm Al Houl, Adamastos and Sea Navigator. Four are signalling 'For Orders' and one (the Adamastos) is bound for Dahej, India, LNG Journal’s data shows.
US LNG arbitrage to Asia falls as JKM-TTF spread narrows
The arbitrage for shipping US LNG cargoes to Northeast Asia has fallen to –$0.2/MMBtu, the lowest level since February 2025 – even though Atlantic freight rates have declined by more than $70,000 per day over the past month, a move that would typically bolster Asia-bound LNG shipping.
LNG glut makes traders compete for European regas capacity
Traders and LNG portfolio players are competing for regasification capacity to land LNG cargoes in Europe, though the European LNG arbitrage stayed closed for much of 2025. According to Platts data, the economics begin to reflect oversupply with the LNG-TTF price spread widening.
Analysts stay bearish on JKM-TTF spread going into 2026
Energy Aspects remains bearish against JKM–TTF Q1 26 spreads amid dwindling freight rates. Some recent fixtures for two-stroke LNG vessels in the Atlantic basin fell below $100,000 per day, opening the arbitrage for US LNG heading to markets east of Suez via the Cape of Good Hope.
Panama Canal transits fall as more US LNG heads to Europe
Not a single US LNG cargo transited the Panama Canal during the first three weeks of November, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, as the arbitrage window prompted most tankers to head to Europe rather than Asia.
JERA capitalises on growing LNG-burn in Southeast Asia
Japan’s largest LNG buyer JERA is capitalising on the growing need to burn LNG for power generation in Malaysia and Indonesia. According to Izumi Kai, CEO of Singapore-based JERA Asia, dwindling domestic gas production in the region makes it “very difficult” to meet energy needs with renewables and battery storage alone.
Favourable arbitrage makes more US LNG head to Europe
US LNG exports are forecast to rise to 2.43 million metric tons per week heading into late 2025 and early 2026, driven by demand recovery and below-average gas storage in Europe. American shippers exported a record 9.4 million metric tons of LNG in September, with two-thirds of the cargoes sold to Europe as the arbitrage window stays open.
Drop in JKM-TTF spreads for bal-winter JKM seems ‘overdone’
LNG price spreads between the Japan Korea Market (JKM) and the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) for balance of winter 2024/25 contracts have fallen, but analysts find this drop is "overdone". London-based Energy Aspects forecasts the JKM-TTF spread will rise above US shipping differentials via the Panama Canal, openig the arbitrage for US spot cargoes to head to Asia.
Spreads narrowed to $0.53/MMBtu in recent days, down from around $1.13/MMBtu in mid-September – with little fundamental change. Though freight rates have fallen, key US shipping differentials via the Panama Canal have delinked only by an average $0.18/MMBtu month-on-month.
Energy Aspects hence upholds its bullish view on bal-winter outturn JKM prices, mainly due to their bullish views on TTF winter 2024–25 prices due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and systematic buying at the TTF near-curve.
The likely end of Russian gas transits through Ukraine starting from January 2025 and Europe’s rising gas demand in an average winter may lead to supply constraints in the EU, which in turn propel up fuel prices. “Our base case outturn JKM price forecasts average $14.55/MMBtu, $0.85/MMBtu above the latest CME settlements,” they explain.
LNG buyers worldwide have launched tenders for 22 cargoes so far this month, with eight of these confirmed, against 10 cargoes tendered and confirmed last October. Of the 80 cargoes tendered in September, 53 were confirmed and 40 were bought by Asian companies.
“Japan has bought three spot cargoes via tender issued month-to-date, with two December deliveries and one January delivery,” analysts disclosed. LNG stocks held by major Japanese power utilities, a subset of aggregate LNG stocks, reached 2.02 million tons, up from a multi-month low of 1.63 Mt two weeks ago.
Indian buyers continue to issue buy tenders, which analysts believe is “likely to stock up pre-emptively before power demand increases in late October due to Diwali.” Indian LNG inventories are understood to be quite high currently.
China’s Sinopec, meanwhile, secured a December delivery via tender, after about a year of not purchasing any cargoes through tenders. Chinese LNG stocks at ten selected LNG terminals have reached 1.93 Mt, up by 0.33 Mt year-on-year.
