LNG

Gas prices at the Dutch TTF, Europe’s benchmark gas trading hub, could average €90-100 per Megawatt-hour (MWh) if the shut-in of Ras Laffan and suspension of Qatari LNG shipment continues for the next three months, an analysts’ poll finds.

Thailand's state energy company PTT is expanding its LNG portfolio, seeking to emulate Cheniere Energy’s flexible LNG shipping model as LNG benchmark prices have fallen to $9-10 per MMBtu, down from $12 in 2025. Analysts at Bernstein note that price-sensitive buyers like Thailand would import substantially more LNG if prices fall below $8/MMBtu.

Energy Aspects remains bearish against JKM–TTF Q1 26 spreads amid dwindling freight rates. Some recent fixtures for two-stroke LNG vessels in the Atlantic basin fell below $100,000 per day, opening the arbitrage for US LNG heading to markets east of Suez via the Cape of Good Hope.

Turkey’s state energy company Botas has renewed its pipeline gas contract with Russia’s Gazprom, keeping volumes unchanged at 21.8 bcm/y. Analysts say this removes much of the upside risk to Turkey’s LNG demand in 2026.

Technical factors support upward momentum for Henry Hub gas prices, especially for the winter 2025/26 strip. Energy Aspects’ quant analysts team sees open interest (OI) erosion in the near-term contracts which creates opportunity for new risk to be added along the curve.

Prices at the TTF, Europe’s most liquid gas trading hub, have eased amid expectations of a “swift comeback of Russian gas deliveries” as a Ukraine peace deal is in the making. "The Ukraine gas transit remains the most viable option for increasing pipeline flows from Russia to Europe,” analysts reckon, while TTF front-month prices shed some 14.6% week-on-week in a bearish market.

The TTF front-month future contract for March was last seen trading at $14.483 per MMBtu, down nearly 15% compared to a week earlier. The steep drop was caused by hopes among market participants for additional Russian pipeline gas following a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But despite narrowing summer-winter backwardation in the forward curve, Rystad’s senior analysts Christoph Halser calls for caution, suggesting "a swift return of Russian supply remains uncertain."

Taking a precautious stance, the EU Commission is rumoured to may publish revised, and likely more flexible, storage targets on 26 February which added to this week’s bearish momentum on gas markets. Amid bearish expectations, the backwardation in the forward curve between summer and winter narrowed. The difference between July 2025 and January 2026 delivery at the TTF was seen decline from $1.38 per MMBtu on 11 February to $0.81 per MMBtu at the end of last week.

Cold freeze pushes up Henry Hub price

Across the Atlantic, freezing temperatures in North America pushed Henry Hub prices to their highest level since late December 2022.” The return of winter saw Henry Hub front-month prices reaching $4.37 per MMBtu on 19 February, up 22.6% from the previous week. Extreme cold across large parts of the US East, Midwest and Mountain regions had pushed up gas demand for heating and electricity generation.

The cold snap also poses a risk of reducing production as regional well freeze-offs loom large. Dry gas production fell to 103.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) at the start of the week, down from 106.7 Bcf/d in early February.

On the demand side, a 3.7% week-on-week uptick in feedgas further added to bullish momentum, reaching 16.17 Bcfd on 18 February, up from 15.6 Bcfd the previous week. This was primarily driven by the ramp-up of the Plaquemines LNG project and higher nominations at Sabine Pass.

Spot and forward LNG prices indicate the supply/demand balance will tighten in December and going into the first quarter of 2025. Following two exceptionally mild winters, markets are currently well supplied at relatively low prices, analysts said, hence a prolonged spell of cold temperatures could squeeze the balance substantially and cause price spikes.

Several LNG buyers seem happy to pay a premium for supply from Australia and the U.S. Forward prices, imply Asian LNG buyers pay above the variable cost of U.S. LNG delivered ex-ship which, according to S&P analysts, “is not what you would expect in an oversupplied market.”