LNG

Asian LNG demand set to fall for a second consecutive year as Qatari supply disruption pushes spot prices to levels that force buyers to cut volumes and switch fuels. Wood Mackenzie forecasts Asia Pacific demand at 257 million tons (Mt) in 2026, down from 268 Mt in the previous year and a peak of 278 Mt in 2024.

The decade of structurally cheap US gas is drawing to a close, with Henry Hub prices forecast to rise towards $5 per MMBtu by 2035 from below $3 per MMBtu, as LNG demand growth tightens domestic balances, Wood Mackenzie said.

Three engines are pulling LNG demand higher, and none of them depends on how the Middle East conflict resolves. The first is North American power.

Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has done something more than move prices: it has removed any shared sense of where the market is heading. For three years the industry's working assumption was that a wave of new LNG capacity would tip the market into oversupply by the late 2020s – but that assumption has now vanished.

Gas prices at the Dutch TTF, Europe’s benchmark gas trading hub, could average €90-100 per Megawatt-hour (MWh) if the shut-in of Ras Laffan and suspension of Qatari LNG shipment continues for the next three months, an analysts’ poll finds.

A new wave of global LNG supply, particularly from the U.S. and Qatar, could reduce energy costs for European industry by up to €39 billion annually by 2032, with cumulative savings of around €180 billion, Wood Mackenzie forecasts.

Global climate finance commitments remain stuck at $100 billion annually – far below the $300 billion target. The widening finance gap and slow coordination on carbon policy translate into a growing role of LNG in Asia’s energy mix, particularly in emerging markets.

European wholesale gas prices fell below €30 per MWh on Monday, a level not seen since February 2024, as expectations for a Ukraine peace deal put bearish pressure on prices. The Dec-2025 TTF contract also slipped below this threshold amid hopes that the EU’s proposed ban on Russian pipeline gas could be softened.

Bearishness sentiment pervades in the Chinese LNG market as the nation’s gas demand continues to fall. “Unless imports are massively picking up in November and December, we might stay below 2023-levels,” warned Anne-Sophie Corbeau, global research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy.

US LNG outperforms coal in economic terms and carbon intensity when evaluated over its full lifecycle for power generation. Two-thirds of US LNG originates from Haynesville and Northeast basins, where drier gas production with less associated liquids create more favourable emission profiles, Wood Mackenzie finds.