Oil-indexed LNG exporters brace for a squeeze in profit margins as ICE Brent crude oil prices fell to $65 per barrel on October 5, down from $70/bbl at last week’s high, after OPEC announced a production increase on Sunday. Rystad Energy reckons ICE Brent will unlikely to hold above $60-65/bbl in 2026 unless OPEC+ adjusts its sanctions on Russia and Iran severely limits exports.
Prices of delivered LNG into North-East Asia, the world’s premium gas market, are converging for oil-linked contracts and those indexed to the US Henry Hub. Most of recent term oil-linked deals for cargoes shipped to Asia have been in the 12.0%-12.5% DES range, while volumes available earlier from post-FID projects are attracting a premium.
Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the owner of the world renowned New York Stock Exchange and platforms for trading global oil and gas futures such as the US Henry Hub, North Sea Brent crude and the Dutch Title Transfer Facility for LNG and natural gas, has signed an accord for dual listing with the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in South Africa.
The collapse of US oil prices into negative territory affected only physical barrels of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery and was not a general oil price crash. The global benchmark North Sea Brent crude prices is largely unaffected, nor are future WTI prices.