US energy report forecasts drop in Haynesville and Appalachia shale output but US oil production to hit records
The US government’s short-term energy report for June forecasts declines in natural gas production in the Haynesville and Appalachia shale basins before a rebound in 2025 backed by higher benchmark Henry Hub gas prices, while also forecasting annual record production in 2024 and 2025 for US crude oil.
US forecasts low Henry Hub natural gas spot price through March and fall in LNG exports this month
The US Government forecasts that the average Henry Hub natural gas spot price would be low through March and LNG exports would decline in February, while record amounts of natural gas were consumed by the nation in January, driven by the gas-fired electric power sector.
US expects natural gas supply will rise to meet growing demand for domestic pipeline gas and LNG exports
The United States forecasts that the nation’s natural gas supply will increase to meet growing demand for domestic pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas exports, though benchmark Henry Hub prices are expected to remain subdued as US oil and gas production increases to new record levels.
US expects Henry Hub natural gas price to rise with summer gas-fired power needs and LNG exports
The US Government expects the benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price to increase along with gas-fired power demand and rising feed-gas supplies for liquefied natural gas exports as dry gas production stalls.
US says the nation’s LNG exports will be lower in the months ahead and points to high gas stocks in Europe
The US said liquefied natural gas exports will be lower over the next few months of 2023 because of high gas stocks in Europe and Freeport LNG being offline while record dry gas production growth has been outpacing demand.
US forecasts LNG exports will increase 16 percent in 2022 amid heightened uncertainty over Ukraine war
The United States said it expected high levels of US LNG exports to continue in 2022 with a 16 percent increase, though stressed that there were heightened levels of uncertainty resulting from a variety of factors, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
US expects natural gas prices to be volatile through to 2022 and LNG exports to increase to meet demand
The US government expects natural gas prices in the US and Europe to remain volatile through to 2022 with the Henry Hub averaging $5.80 per million British thermal units in the fourth quarter of 2021 as US LNG exports are set to increase through 2022 to meet soaring global demand even as they declined 4 percent last month.
The latest Henry Hub forecast is $1.80 per MMBtu higher than in the previous short-term energy outlook issued by the US Energy Information Administration.
“We estimate that US LNG exports averaged 9.3 billion cubic feet per day in September, down 4 percent from August,” said the EIA.
Despite the recent monthly decline, the agency noted that these were the most US LNG exports for September since the US began exporting cargoes from the Lower 48 states in February 2016.
“Even though September exports were a record for the month, they were limited by weather conditions, which led to the suspension of piloting services for several days at Sabine Pass, Cameron, and Corpus Christi,” noted the EIA.
“We expect that LNG exports will average 9.1 billion cubic feet per day in October and then increase in the coming months,” said the report.
The Cove Point LNG terminal in Maryland is scheduled to complete its annual maintenance by mid-October and resume exports this month.
Through this winter, the report said LNG exports would average 10.7 Bcf per day as global natural gas demand remains high.
Several new LNG export Trains, the sixth Train at Sabine Pass LNG and the first Trains at the new Venture Global LNG export facility at Calcasieu Pass LNG, then enter service in 2022.
The EIA outlook also forecast that US inventory draws from working gas storage would be slightly more than the five-year average this winter.
“We expect that factor, along with rising US natural gas exports and relatively flat production through January will keep US natural gas prices near recent levels before downward pressures emerge,” stated the report.
“Given low natural gas inventories in both US and European natural gas storage facilities and uncertainty around seasonal demand, we expect natural gas prices to remain volatile over the coming months,” added the agency.
The EIA estimates that US natural gas inventories ended September 2021 at about 3.3 trillion cubic feet, 5 percent less than the five-year (2016-2020) average for this time of year.
Injections into storage this summer have been below the previous five-year average, largely as a result of more electricity consumption in June due to hot weather, and increased exports even as domestic natural gas production has remained flat.
US expects Henry Hub price to average $3.07 per MMBtu amid LNG growth and flat natural gas output
The United States expects dry natural gas production will be flat and average 92.9 billion cubic feet per day in the second half of 2021 before output rises in 2022 to underpin LNG exports and more gas use outside the electricity generating sector amid switching to less expensive US coal for power.
US natural gas output falls while LNG exports drop because of weather and further declines forecast
US production of natural gas dropped in February while LNG exports also plunged 23 percent because of the bad weather and navigational restrictions on the Gulf Coast during the month.
US forecasts falling LNG exports will decline even further in third quarter on reduced cargo demand
US government forecasts expect the nation’s liquefied natural gas exports will average 5.6 billion cubic feet per day in the second quarter of 2020 and they will decline further through the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer as a result of reduced global demand.
