JKM-TTF spreads widen, opens arbitrage for US LNG to Asia
The arbitrage for flexible US LNG cargoes heading to Asia is open with spreads between the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) and the Dutch TTF widening, as the tepid recovery of Qatari and UAE LNG exports is unlikely to outpace rebounding Asian demand.
Hormuz: Price ahead of Cargo
The Hormuz risk premium has washed out of gas prices since the US-Iran understanding, leaving TTF and JKM far below their March crisis peaks. The physical data does not yet justify it. Combined Qatari and Emirati exports across the strait reached barely a tenth of normal in June, and the downside remains live.
European LNG demand could fall by 17 mtpa in 2026 – Poten
Most European LNG buyers are expected to import less than anticipated due to higher prices and tighter markets, with Poten & Partners estimating around 17 mtpa of demand destruction this year, particularly in Italy and Belgium.
Hormuz blockade risk, US toll threat lift TTF winter prices
Bullishness abounds for LNG prices and winter 2026/27 contracts at Europe’s benchmark TTF gas trading hub after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose a US toll on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. For spot prices, the sell-off after the peace memorandum was short-lived.
Europe struggles to attract LNG to refill storages
As Asian netbacks for delivered LNG cargoes outbid European prices, buyers are struggling to attract sufficient volumes to offset a looming storage shortfall. An additional 40 cargoes per month would be needed over the next five months, according to ICIS calculations, though economists doubt this is achievable.
Downside risk to LNG supply emerges, Kpler warns
Tightening LNG balances in Europe, amid maintenance across Norway’s pipeline network and lower imports, have made Kpler analysts “slightly bullish” on benchmark TTF gas prices, while restocking in China and stronger Asian demand underpin global LNG markets.
US LNG diverts to Asia as JKM-TTF arbitrage widens
Five US-loaded LNG cargoes have diverted from European or Egyptian destinations into the Pacific Basin in the four weeks through mid-May: the WilPride, SK Audace, Umm Al Houl, Adamastos and Sea Navigator. Four are signalling 'For Orders' and one (the Adamastos) is bound for Dahej, India, LNG Journal’s data shows.
Asia’s call on cross-basin LNG cargo lifts JKM-TTF spreads
Fast-growing Asian demand for cross-basin LNG cargoes has widened price spreads between the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) and the Dutch TTF for the July–September period. An uneven recovery in Hormuz carrier transits risks delaying a return to “normal” exports until October.
Disruptions to Qatari LNG may ease by end-April
QatarEnergies is working towards restarting some LNG trains at Ras Laffan, as shipping disruptions are anticipated to ease by the end of April. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until July or beyond, however, analysts reckon prices at the Dutch TTF gas trading hub would need to rise to well above 2022-levels for Europe be able to refill storages.
TTF prices to near €100/MWh if Qatari LNG halt lingers on
Gas prices at the Dutch TTF, Europe’s benchmark gas trading hub, could average €90-100 per Megawatt-hour (MWh) if the shut-in of Ras Laffan and suspension of Qatari LNG shipment continues for the next three months, an analysts’ poll finds.
