LNG

Global pricing agency Platts said the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) price for liquefied natural gas assessed by the US firm rose to a record high of $20.705 per million British thermal units

Asian spot LNG prices are riding at six-year highs, as a cold spell in some countries in North Asia prompted record imports into the region.

While Platts reported the temporary record $20.705 trading level, though the February settled prices were still generally at around $15.550 per MMBtu.

The March price was at $9.550 per MMBtu and April was quoted at $6.500 per MMBtu.

Analysts said demand from Japan has pushed up North Asia spot cargo prices.

Jera Co. Inc., Japan’s biggest power generator and the world’s largest buyer of LNG, as well as other Japanese electricity and gas companies, are competing with LNG buyers in China and South Korea to secure supplies.

Platts said that the situation also meant that fewer cargoes were coming to Europe than is usual for this time of year.

The UK National Balancing Point benchmark gas price had been firm over the past week though has now fallen under $7.00 per MMBtu.

The NBP was last at $6.95 per million British thermal units while the continental European Dutch Title Transfer facility (TTF) price was lower at the equivalent of $6.35 per MMBtu.

“A major demand stimulus for the recent price increase was the cold snap across northeast Asia which has boosted gas consumption and accelerated drastic inventory draw-down in Japan, South Korea and China,” explained Platts.

“On the supply-side, production issues in countries such as Malaysia have depleted availability and led to delayed or deferred deliveries of LNG, as well as reduced volumes stipulated under long-term contracts,” it added.

US Gulf Coast LNG prices were lower. The February derivative contracts for FOB cargoes has declined to $5113 per MMBtu from
$6.400 per MMBtu.

The March price also fell back on the week to $4.883 per MMBtu from $5.929 per MMBtu. The April GCL price was from $4.532 per MMBtu.

Additionally, there have been shipping traffic constraints in the Panama Canal, meaning vessels carrying shipments from the US Gulf Coast have experienced longer shipping times into the Pacific region.

“This has meant more cargoes are expected in Asia in the later weeks of February or in March,” stated Platts.

Platts said it forecast a drop in Asia-Pacific demand through the first quarter. Even if some supply outages continue through March, prices were likely to decline.

Cargo liftings of liquefied natural gas increased worldwide for a fifth week, and likely the highest of 2020, as North Asia spot LNG prices jumped to $9.200 per million British thermal units for February 2021 and North Sea Brent crude oil prices hit the $50 a barrel mark for the first time in 10 months.

Japanese spot LNG prices for October contracted cargoes jumped by $1.50 per million British thermal units from the previous month and were also higher than in the same month of 2020 as North Asian market demand increased.

Australia exported a record 79.1 million tonnes of LNG in the 12 months to June 2020, up 5.9 percent from 74.7MT a year earlier while domestic gas consumption grew on both the East and West coast markets in the second quarter in contrast to the experience during Covid-19 across most of the developed world.

Australian domestic gas consumption on the East Coast was 7.7 petajoules higher quarter over quarter in the second three months of the year, according to the monthly report from consultants EnergyQuest.

“Gas-use-for-power (GPG) was down by 5.9 petajoules in the quarter, though other gas-use (residential, commercial and industrial) increased by 13.6 petajoules with increases in all states except New South Wales,” said the report.

EnergyQuest noted that as one of the world’s major LNG producers Australia is to some extent becoming a price-maker
in relation to spot prices.

The Platts Japan-Korea Marker has increased from US$2.15 per million British thermal units at the start of July to US$4.66 per MMBtu on 4 September.

“This coincides with unexpected outages at the Western Australian Gorgon LNG project due to the shut-downs for repairs,” said the report.

The national regulator, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission publishes East Coast netback gas price estimates based on the Platts JKM.

This means that unexpected developments in Western Australia that affect spot prices will directly feed in to East Coast netback
estimates and possibly East Coast prices.

“To this degree any domestic contracts indexed to LNG spot prices will be hostage to unexpected shutdowns by West Coast projects, as well as projects elsewhere in the world,” EnergyQuest explained.

The overall Australian LNG export market followed the rest of the world on the score that towards the end of the year the industry began to buckle under the weight of a global glut of the fuel.

Production of LNG in the second quarter of 2020 fell to 19.1MT, the lowest since the third quarter of 2018. 

In July. Australian projects shipped a total of 5.8MT (85 cargoes), only marginally lower than 5.9MT (85 cargoes) in June, but well below the record level of 7.0MT in December 2019.

“From May onwards, the effects of Covid-19 on Australian LNG (in an already oversupplied LNG market) began to hit home,” said the report..

“Projects began extending maintenance periods to rein in production and experienced cargo deferrals. Of the 85 Australian cargoes shipped during June, 33 cargoes were delayed during the month,” it added.

The immediate impact on LNG price realisations was mixed.

Producers such as Woodside Petroleum, operator of the North West Shelf and Pluto LNG export plants, with a relatively high proportion of spot cargo sales, felt the biggest price impact.

However, the East Coast Australia-Pacific LNG facility and the Santos-run Gladstone LNG saw out the full year to end-June 2020 with little deterioration in realized prices.

Total export revenue for the year to June was A$47.8 billion (US$34.8Bln), down only 3.8 percent from a year earlier.

However, the negative impact on prices and revenues was accelerating thereafter.

Export revenue in the second quarter of A$10.5 billion was down 16.1 percent from $12.6 billion in first quarter.

“Queensland’s LNG projects finished the financial year strongly. All three projects shipped record tonnages in FY 2020,” said the report.

“Queensland LNG export revenues were steady at A$4.16 billion between Q2 2019 and Q2 2020 and up slightly from the first quarter. However, revenues are likely to have turned down from July,” it added.

The latest round of quarterly reports by Australian oil producers laid bare the full effect of the pandemic-led collapse in oil prices.

Realised oil prices for Woodside Petroleum, which emerged in Q2 2020 as the country’s largest oil producer, plunged to US$31 per barrel in the second quarter of 2020, down 55 percent from US$69 per barrel in the same period of 2019.

“The latest price was also down sharply from Woodside’s average realised price of US$52 per barrel in the first quarter of 2020,” said the report.

“The country’s second and third largest oil producers, Beach Energy and Santos, suffered a similar fate to Woodside,” it added.

US liquefied natural gas exports decreased to six vessels in the past week because of hurricane disruption, though this was offset by higher natural gas and LNG indicators in Europe and Asia to help move future cargoes into profitable territory.

Indian liquefied natural gas monthly imports edged higher as shipments cost less and began to gather pace along with economic activity and shipments for September at the nation’s largest terminal from Cove Point in the US and from Trinidad.

US LNG exports increased to seven shipments in the past week while feed-gas supplies to liquefaction and export plants also rose as natural gas prices and LNG indicators edged higher or were steady.

Natural gas prices and LNG cargo value indicators have been slow to gather pace in July with front-month futures and the Japan-Korea Marker price for Asian spot cargoes remaining lacklustre in contrast to more buoyant New York Mercantile Exchange US natural gas futures.

May 13 (LNGJ) - Asian LNG spot prices in the form of the Japan-Korea Marker from Platts are showing signs of partial recovery with the June cargoes edging higher to $2.115 per million British thermal units and July cargoes at $2.450 per MMBtu. The all-time JKM low was recently under $2.00 per MMBtu and traders may be heartened by the October JKM moving above $3.000 per MMBtu level and December 2020 being at $4.235 per MMBtu.

   Among LNG carriers heading for Asia with deliveries are the 217,000 cubic metres capacity Q-Flex carrier “Al Kharsaah”, scheduled to deliver a contract shipment on May 15 to the Thai import terminal at Map Ta Phut. The 173,400 cubic metres capacity vessel “Woodside Rees Withers” was due to arrive on May 18 at the Pyeongtaek terminal in South Korea with a shipment from Wheatstone LNG in Western Australia. The 165,000 cubic metres capacity carrier “Diamond Gas Orchid” is scheduled to discharge a US cargo on May 25 at the Shimizu Sodeshi import terminal in Japan from Cameron LNG in Louisiana.

Oil prices plunged over the weekend with their biggest fall in almost 30 years as the world’s largest exporter Saudi Arabia decided to slash prices and North Sea Brent crude hit $33.56 a barrel, a more than 32 percent drop since Friday when it was at $49.32 per barrel.