LNG

The Philippine government is regulating electricity rates to counter the risk of LNG-linked price inflation of up to 16 percent, amid Middle East shipping disruptions. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin is negotiating stable coal supplies from Indonesia to facilitate fuel switching and wants to temporarily cap spot power prices.

Shell-led LNG Canada has substantially ramped up production and exports to Asia. In the first 11 days of March, the plant loaded five cargoes with a sixth cargo getting ready to set sail today.

Lengthy equipment-order backlogs delay and inflate costs of LNG-fuelled power projects in Vietnam and the Philippines. Some turbine makers advise developers to plan 7-8 years ahead for turbine procurement.

Philippine power generators are burning less coal in the first time in 20 years as Asian spot LNG prices are down 13% year-to-date on tepid demand which makes natural gas a more competitive fuel. The benchmark Asian spot LNG price for September delivery dropped $2.70 to $12.30 per MMBtu on lacklustre demand and high stockpiles.

LNG imports to the Philippines are forecast to jump 508% through to 2029, spurred by the fast-depleting Malampaya field which forces gas power plant operators to source fuel from abroad. Projections from the Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) show the transition to LNG could cost $3.9 billion (PHP218 bn) over the next four years.

First Gen is divesting 60 percent of its Philippine gas business to Prime Infra in a deal worth 500 billion Pesos (US$890m), covering controlling interests in BW Batangas FSRU, the proposed 1.2 GW Santa Maria power plant as well as the Santa Rita, San Sorenzo and Avion power plants (1,597 MW combined).

Santa Maria, a 1,200 MW combined-cycle power plant, will be fuelled via an interim offshore LNG terminal which is also part of the divested assets. Tokyo Gas had been contracted to supply an LNG cargo to First Gen in July 2024 which had been unloaded at the BW Batangas floating storage and regas unit (FSRU).

First Gen confirmed at the time it closed a tender for a cargo by awarding a contract to Tokyo Gas. Similar contracts were signed earlier with Shell Eastern LNG, Trafigura, TotalEnergies Gas and Power Asia and CNOOC Gas and Power Trading. The regasified LNG is designated for the First Gen Clean Energy Complex, comprising the Santa Rita, Avion and San Gabriel power plants.

The 1 GW Santa Maria CCGT used to supply baseload and mid-merit power to the Luzon grid. The Sta. Maria CCGT was initially meant to enter operations by the end of this year or early 2025, but the timeline slipped and First Gen now decided to divest its gas power assets altogether.

Following the sale, Prime Infra will hold the lion’s share of 60% in the Batangas-based gas power plants, with First Gen retaining the remaining 40%. The same equity split will apply to the LNG terminal, while Tokyo Gas of Japan will continue to hold a 20% stake.

Prime Infra already owns Prime Energy, the operator of the vast but depleting Malampaya gas field, which used to be a critical source of fuel for Luzon’s power generation.

First Gen Chairman and CEO Federico Lopez haled the deal as a “major step in our mission to forge collaborative pathways toward a decarbonized and regenerative future.” The partnership is meant to provide First Gen with more financial leeway to pursue its renewable energy projects.

As the largest renewable energy producer of the Philippines, First Gen covers about 18% pf the country’s electricity supply. Both First Gen and the media company ABS-CBN belong to the Lopez group of companies.

Southeast Asia is expected to become a net LNG importer by 2032, with demand set to soar approximately 182% over the next decade. Wood Mackenzie forecasts the region’s gas demand will outpace both oil and coal, particularly in Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Though the Department of Energy (DOE) reckons the Philippines two new LNG terminals will have “no problem in securing supply” once opened in March and April, analysts revised down the country’s LNG imports. High global gas prices are pressuring utilities to use less LNG for power generation, as higher renewables and coal generation suffices to meet demand.

LNG demand growth east of Suez is expected to exceed regionals supply, so Asian buyers are looking to pull some flexible Atlantic cargoes to balance. Energy Aspects is bullish against JKM-TTF spreads over the balance of 2025, though call on cross-basin is lower this year as contractual term cover in the top five Asian markets – China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India – has fallen to 82% in 2025.

Vires Energy, affiliate of A Brown Co., has walked away from plans to build a floating LNG import terminal in the Philippines. Instead, it seeks to source gas from third parties to fuel its 500 MW barge-mounted power project.