LNG

QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on term LNG deliveries through mid-June, with Edison notified of a 10-cargoe shortfall while Petronet says it expects to receive its full contacted Qatari LNG volumes once Hormuz transits resume.

India’s energy security is under strain due to loss of Qatari LNG deliveries, prompting Petronet to activate emergency clauses in other import agreements and scrambles for spot cargoes from Australia and the US to offset the shortfall.

India’s leading gas importer Petronet LNG is open to purchasing more US LNG “at reasonable rates,” CEO AK Singh said during a press briefing in New Delhi. Favourable terms are essential for Petronet to sign new sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) with US LNG exporters, Singh underlined with reference to fierce price-competition from Qatar and Australian suppliers.

QatarEnergy has pushed back the start of its LNG expansion project from mid- to late-2026. Any delay is, however, tightly constrained by long‑term offtake contracts that bind when LNG deliveries have to begin. 

The Indian government aims to expand LNG import capacity to 66.7 mtpa by 2030 – a 27% rise from the current 52.7 mtpa – thanks to two projected regas terminals. The build-out aligns with government policies to more than double the share of gas in the national power gen mix to 15% by the end of the decade.

India’s LNG imports are bound to rise amid higher gas-burn in the summer season and Petronet aims to get the expansion of the 17.5 mtpa Dahaj terminal to 22.5 mtpa completed in the next three months, CEO A.K. Singh said. He indicated Petronet aims to maximise the utilisation of this terminal over the summer.

Electric power generators across India have already been asked by the government to operate underutilised gas-fuelled plant at a higher capacity between May 26 and June 30.

Rain and cooler temperatures have subdued gas demand over the past few weeks but electricity demand is forecast to rise starkly as the summer season approaches. "We expect LNG demand to rise similar to last year's levels. Demand for power is rising in last few days so we are expecting demand for LNG to rise in the third or fourth week of May and in June," the Petronet CEO said.

Dispatch of gas-fuelled power plants has been more expensive than those running on thermal coal, solar or wind energy which results in three-fifth of all gas power stations standing idle. These plants tend to be primarily used for gas peaking power.

Yet the narrowing spread between spot and longterm LNG prices is incentivising buyers like Petronet to step up purchasing, Sing said, indicating Indian offtakers prefer LNG prices at below $10 per million British thermal units. At this level gas-burn for power generation starts to become economic.

Near-fixed price LNG offtake

For long, Petronet used to purchase US LNG at a near-fixed price. In September 2019, it signed a $7.5 billion agreement with Tellurian to take a stake in Driftwood LNG and import 5 mtpa. For American LNG vendors, selling LNG directly to Indian customers is difficult given that utility customers are hesitant to lock in long-term offtake agreements due to a high risk of price volatility at wholesale power markets.

Prime Minister Narenda Modi is pushing to turn India into a gas-based economy, aiming to boost the use of gas from 6.2% to 15% by 2030. To achieve this goal, the PM has set out measures to double city gas networks to 400 districts, set up an independent gas transmission system operator and a trading exchange to allow for transparent operations of pipelines and price discovery.

“Increasing natural gas use will enable India to fuel its impressive economic growth to achieve Prime Minister Modi's goal of a $5 trillion economy," noted Tellurian president and CEO Meg Gentle.

Indian liquefied natural gas imports continued their decline in 2022 because of high prices and competition from the European market, while domestic natural gas output rose amid a fall in the nation’s gas consumption.

Tellurian Inc., the US company developing the Driftwood LNG project and a network of feed-gas pipelines on the Gulf Coast, posted a third-quarter net loss while advancing with sales of LNG and equity interests in the liquefaction venture with several counterparties after signing an accord with Petronet of India.

Japanese company Toyo Engineering said it was awarded a contract to construct a liquefied natural gas import terminal near Kodinar, north of Mumbai, and set to be the seventh regasification facility on the West Coast.

Indian liquefied natural gas imports rebounded on a year-on-year basis to jump 4.7 percent in December as more cargoes arrived from Qatar, West Africa and Australia after previous monthly declines.