LNG

Stalled US-Iran negotiations are manifesting LNG price premiums this autumn, with the average price for an October cargo delivered to Northeast Asia forecast at $22.50 per MMBtu. The geopolitical premium is firmly engrained in global LNG markets, fuelling a bullish sentiment in Asia where the price of delivered LNG increased by$0.85/MMBtu week-on-week to nearly$22.10/MMBtu.

Norway's energy minister Terje Aasland has insisted on the country’s sovereign rights to drill in the Barents Sea to sustain oil and LNG exports at current levels until 2035, even though the EU is debating a moratorium.

With risks to ship LNG cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz likely to persist into the upcoming winter, Argus’ TTF front-month price assessment was last seen not far off €64/MWh, its highest level since January 2023.

Tightening LNG balances in Europe, amid maintenance across Norway’s pipeline network and lower imports, have made Kpler analysts “slightly bullish” on benchmark TTF gas prices, while restocking in China and stronger Asian demand underpin global LNG markets.

A review of the EU’s Arctic policy running through March 16, 2026, places fresh emphasis on gas from Norway’s Barents Sea which could lower Europe’s reliance on LNG imports. The resource base is substantial: The parts of the Barents Sea already open to exploration, according to Norwegian Offshore Directorate estimates, hold around 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of natural gas, or about 22 trillion cubic feet.

The TTF needs to price higher at around €57/MWh for the balance of 2025– if European buyers want to succeed in attracting flexible LNG cargoes, as inventories are depleting fast. Reduced Norwegian pipeline gas flows could propel up TTF prices, analysts warn, as Europe lost its ability to further minimise power-sector gas demand.

Construction of an onshore LNG import terminal at Brunsbüttel is more expensive than expected, forcing Germany to support it with another €200 million in federal funding – on top of the €740 million initially committed. Broadcaster NDR reports total costs now surpass €1,5 billion, instead of €1.3 billion, with private investors having to shoulder most of the overrun.  

Norway, the nation that helped restore Europe’s energy security with natural gas, oil and LNG supplies after Russian links were cut following the invasion of Ukraine two years ago, has become the first country in the world to approve commercial deep-sea mining in its waters to supply rare minerals needed to make electric vehicles and other technology.

The Norwegian Parliament voted 80-20 on January 9 to approve a cross-party proposal that could revolutionise the global supply of minerals, which are pivotal for an array of clean technologies, including batteries for electric vehicles.

Under the new legislation Norway is opening up 280,000 square kilometres (108,000 square miles) of the Norwegian Continental Shelf, an area equivalent to the size of the UK, for the granting of exploration licences for minerals and chemical elements such as lithium, cobalt and scandium.

Norway’s approval of deep-sea mining in its own waters will add momentum to moves to open up some international waters for extracting rare minerals.

Mineral sources

Lithium and cobalt are only found below ground in a small number of countries, including onshore the Republic of Congo in West Africa, which will also soon become an LNG exporter with an offshore natural gas project being developed by Italian major Eni.

Norway itself has impeccable environmental and conservation profile as a nation and easily stepped in to increase its natural gas supplies to Europe when Russian deliveries were cut after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The Norwegians are also Europe’s largest producers of hydro-electric power and more than 95 percent of their electricity and 50 percent of all the country’s power comes from renewables, including wind.

The Norwegians also run the Hammerfest LNG export plant on Melkoya Island in northern Norway supplying nations such as France, the Netherlands, Italy, the UK, Spain and Lithuania with cargoes.

Failure of ideas

The Norwegian move on deep-sea mining was, of course, condemned by the environmental groups, run by the elites and who have forced governments to get petrol-driven cars off the road and replace them with electric vehicles without themselves coming up with any worthwhile suggestions except for sowing chaos and energy poverty.

Analysts say that estimates for the rare minerals industry’s new potential range from hundreds of millions to trillions of dollars.

They add that pressure from opponents mean detailed environmental studies will have to be carried out before any mining can take place, potentially delaying extraction until the 2030s.

None of Norway’s 17 protected marine areas are included in the Norwegian zones proposed for mining and the Government in Oslo has insisted that every commercial licence will have to be approved by its parliament, the Storting.

The first steps for commercial mining companies will be to undertake exploration and mapping activities to increase knowledge of what is below ground in the NCS.

The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund belonging to Norway, the main pipeline natural gas supplier to the European Union and an LNG producer, reported a loss of almost $34 billion in the third quarter as all asset classes fell in value.

Norway, an exporter of LNG and pipeline natural gas as well as oil cargoes, is a frugal country when it comes to its own natural gas demand with annual needs of just 6.3 billion cubic metres.