LNG

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), the OPEC of natural gas and LNG based in Qatar, has published its Annual Outlook outlining supply and demand forecasts and expects total upstream and midstream investments to reach $8.7 trillion by 2050.

In its sixth edition, the Outlook finds that natural gas can become the fuel of choice in satisfying the growing world energy needs, addressing climate change and improving air quality.

“The GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050 underscores that investment in natural gas is critical for the stability of global energy systems,” declared Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General of the GECF.

“Environmental policies are a key driver of the projections contained in the Outlook. In this context, whilst upholding that natural gas is the cleanest of hydrocarbon fuels, the Outlook explores the state of technologies that will make it even cleaner,” added Hamel.

The GECF comprises 19 countries who together represent 71 percent of the world’s proven gas reserves, 43 percent of its marketed production, 52 percent of pipeline gas and 58 percent of LNG exports.

Asia-Pacific demand

“Global energy demand will rise by 29 percent over the next three decades, with the majority of that increase emanating from growing economies in Asia Pacific and Africa,” said the report.

“Natural gas demand will rise by 46 percent from 3,840 billion cubic metres in 2020 to 5,625 Bcm in 2050. The Asia-Pacific region will represent the largest growth share,” it added.

“The power generation sector will take a frontline place, accounting for 42 percent of the total increase in gas demand. The transport sector and blue hydrogen generation will emerge as significant new areas of gas demand expansion,” stated the GECF.

The Middle East, principally Qatar, will deliver 32 percent of the global gas supply increase and there will be a growing role for deepwater and unconventional natural gas resource developments to meet demand.

The global gas trade is forecast to increase by 45 percent by 2050 and become more integrated and interrelated through LNG expansion.

Trade in natural gas is seen expanding by 1.5 percent per annum between 2020 and 2050 to reach 1,815 Bcm and account for a third of global gas demand.

The report forecasts that LNG will overtake pipeline trade around 2030 to reach 845 million tonnes (1,150 Bcm).

The GECF has 11 full members, including seven LNG producers: Algeria, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, along with pipeline producers Bolivia, Iran, Libya and Venezuela.

It also has eight observer-status member countries. They include five LNG nations: Angola, Malaysia, Norway, Peru and the United Arab Emirates, along with Azerbaijan, Iraq, and Kazakhstan.

Turkey, one of the largest LNG importers in the European region, has awarded a European-US consortium a significant contract for the subsea development of the nation’s largest-ever natural gas discovery, the Sakarya gas field in the Black Sea.

State energy company, Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı (TPAO), has chosen the consortium of Houston-based Schlumberger and Europe’s Subsea 7 for the engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) at the Sakarya field.

The integrated project scope will cover subsurface solutions to onshore production, including well completions, subsea production systems (SPS), subsea umbilicals, risers, flowlines (SURF) and an early production facility.

Turkey has discovered between 400 billion cubic metres and 530 Bcm of natural gas in the Black Sea Sakarya field in assorted wells.

The project contract includes the provision and installation of infield flowlines, control umbilicals, tie-in connections, associated subsea equipment, 170 kilometres (105 miles) of gas export pipeline and an monoethylene glycol injection pipeline.

The government aims to get Black Sea gas flowing into the national grid in 2023, the centennial of the founding of modern Turkey, with sustained plateau production starting in 2027 or 2028.

Turkey plans to cover up to a quarter of its consumption from the discovery by 2027.

Natural Resources Minister Fatih Dönmez has said the country may be able to start with an initial annual production capacity of 3.5 Bcm in 2023.

Increases

The eventual aim would be to lift the Sakarya field capacity to around 15 Bcm per annum within four years of initial production.

Turkey itself currently consumes between 45 Bcm and 50 Bcm of natural gas each year.

Turkish LNG import terminals in 2020 handled 10.72 million tonnes of LNG with its four largest suppliers being Algeria with 3.96MT, Qatar with 2.26MT, the US supplying 2.22MT and a further 1.32MT coming from Nigeria.

The scope of work on the Sakarya field for Subsea 7-Schlumberger comprises the whole EPCI of the subsea pipelines and associated equipment to connect the gas wells at a depth of around 2,000 metres to the shore and gas grid. Turkey has already initiated the production of the pipes for this process.

Subsea 7 said it its statement on the contract that it defines a major contract as being one where its share of revenue is more than $750 million.

Schlumberger will deliver the well completions scope and the design, construction and commissioning of the early production facility capable of handling up to 350 million standard cubic feet per day of gas.

The SPS and SURF scope will be delivered by OneSubsea, the subsea technologies, production, and processing systems division of Schlumberger and Subsea 7.

“Subsea 7 looks forward to building a long-term relationship with Turkish Petroleum and to making a significant contribution to the development and growth of the Turkish energy industry,” said John Evans, Subsea 7 Chief Executive.

“Subsea 7 has a long track record of providing optimised solutions for deepwater developments and we are pleased to be working on this important project,” added Evans.

Nigeria LNG Ltd., the operator of world’s fifth-largest LNG export plant at Bonny Island on the Niger Delta, is in talks with major banks for $10 billion in project financing for the new seventh liquefaction Train.

Indian liquefied natural gas imports increased for a third month of the current fiscal year as the nation received more than 30 cargoes, with the main suppliers being the West African nations of Nigeria and Angola as well as Qatar.

The countdown to the start of the expansion project for Nigeria’s liquefied natural gas plant, with the building of a seventh Train, has started after the signing of the first accord on LNG after the February re-election of President Muhammadu Buhari that ended months of indecision.

Chinese liquefied natural gas imports rose to a record level last month as shipments continued to be attracted by high North Asian spot prices with the main suppliers such as Qatar, Australia and Nigeria keeping up their delivery momentum.