LNG

Costly investment programmes to facilitate Europe’s green energy transition are weakening the credit metrics of regulated gas and electricity networks. Moody’s Ratings hence changed the outlook of European TSOs to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’.

Transparent and established regulation still supports credit quality, but regulators struggle to facilitate infrastructure investment at an affordable cost. “If shareholders consider allowed returns or cost recovery mechanisms to be insufficient, then support will fall short of maintaining credit quality,” analysts commented.

Europe's power grids and gas network operators are hard pressed to handle the substantial growth in load-related Capex required, and planned investments, said Phil Cope, senior credit officer at Moody’s Ratings.“Pressing demands arise from the need to grid-connect more renewables and accommodate rising volumes of electricity demand other sectors, e.g. heating (heat pumps), transport (electric vehicles), and data centres, where demands for capacity will intensify to support the growth in AI,” he explained.

Capital spending has grown significantly in recent years: Five-year Capex guidance for many networks – especially electricity transmission – is at least double that of five years ago. The current regulatory framework allows many gas and power network operators to recover investment over 20 to 50 years. But analysts warn the surge in Capex dwarfs the rise to network companies’ operating cash flow and this, in turn, weakens cash-flow based credit metrics.

TenneT, the TSO handling the power grid in the Netherlands and part of Germany, has seen its five-year Capex guidance soar from €40 billion in 2023 to over €62 billion this year – with no end in sight. The Belgian/German network operator Elia, meanwhile, has seen the same Capex metric almost double from around €16 billion to €30 billion over the same period.

The French and Spanish utilities ENGIE and Iberdrola have either increased or stated their intention to rise their exposure to regulated electricity networks. Moody’s reckons this is because they aim to improve their risk profile by benefitting from the “growth in higher quality earnings” as these networks carry out their investment programs. Others, notably SSE of Scotland and the German regional utility EnBW have reduced their exposure by selling their minority stakes in their power transmission businesses in recent years.

Hazards of oversupply are preoccupying International Oil Companies (IOCs) as less carbon-intensive sources of energy compound the risk of future oil and gas oversupply. Still, Moody's analysts are convinced oil majors will tackle these new issues through a triad of conservative financial policies to strengthen balance sheets, capital discipline, and robust long-term planning that anticipates secular shifts – like the global trend towards renewables and energy storage.

The Alaska LNG project, led by the state’s Alaska Gasline Development Corp. (AGDC), may suffer from the protracted early delays in moving forward and the subsequent oil price plunge as the state’s debt has now been downgraded as Alaska has gone from the highest credit rating in the nation in 2014 to the third-lowest, above only Illinois and New Jersey.

The latest expansion in Australian and US liquefied natural gas supply capacity, which is costing developers more than a quarter of a trillion dollars to build, was boosted by a spike in demand from Asia supported by abundant American shale gas supplies at low prices.

Aug 20 (LNGJ) - Moody's expects that new investments by Japanese shipping companies Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK) Mitsui O.S.K Lines (MOL) and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha will keep their debt levels high and slow deleveraging.

Continued high debt leverage due to a rise in LNG tankers on order could trigger downgrades for NYK and MOL, the rating agency warned.