LNG

Australian LNG exporters are falling short on meeting Asian demand due to a lack of capacity that partially stems from an uncertain investment environment. “The first question from buyers always is, can you do more?...

Regional US gas prices in the Southwest and Southern California are trading near zero, even as LNG export demand hits maximum capacity. Domestic gas output exceeds 105 Bcf/d, flooding storage and capping upside, while LNG feedgas demand increased to 20.3 Bcf/d amid soaring US LNG export driven by panic buying.

Vitol’s head of LNG, Pablo Galante Escobar, has warned the halt in Middle Eastern supply could develop into a food crisis, unless transits through the Strait of Hormuz resume. Longer term, the Gulf market could lose 20 mtpa of LNG supply growth in 2027 and 2028, because of damage to Qatari capacity and delays to new regional projects.

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albansese is considering a windfall tax on gas producers as LNG prices surge, asking to model new levy options for the gas industry. Government data showing LNG exports worth about A$65.4 billion and volumes of 79.8 million tonnes in the 12 months to April 2025.

With more than 12 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) of Middle East crude oil and LNG production taken offline due to the Iran war, Russia emerges as the clear winner of global supply shortages. US President Trump’s sanctions relief for Russia’s short-term oil was meant to ease supply disruptions, but had little effect.

By 2028, the Middle East envisages to add 60 mtpa of new LNG export capacity and developments will require more than $50 billion in capital spending, Rystad Energy forecasts. Qatar will lead the expansion with 48 mtpa alone through its North Field East and North Field South projects, the UAE will contribute 10 mtpa from the Ruwais LNG project, and TotalEnergies is developing the Marsa LNG project with a capacity of 1 mtpa in Oman.

Fitch Ratings has revising down EBITDA margins for global corporates to below 18%, down 0.5pp from forecasts in early 2025. For the oil & gas sector, Fitch changed its outlook from ‘neutral’ to ‘deteriorating’ after the rating agency already cut its global GDP growth projections in April due to the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs.

India is poised to snap up big parts of the substantial volume of uncontracted LNG from the Middle East. Buying interest is on the rise as the Indian government allows utilities to blend LNG with domestically produced gas in a bid to make it more affordable for power generation, compared with coal.

Watch out for uncontracted LNG cargoes, seems to be the motto of Indian commodity traders and large utilities. Looking ahead, Rystad’s Kaushal Ramesh, Vice President Gas & LNG Research, expects savvy buyers to secure large parts of the uncontracted LNG production from Qatar, Oman and potentially Iran – at favourable terms.

“The nation is well-positioned to attract aggressive targeting from Middle Eastern producers and offtakers,” he said, noting nearly 100 million tons per annum (mtpa) of Middle East LNG will remain uncontracted by 2035.”

Flexible, low-cost supply preferred

Some potential pitfalls should, however, be taken into consideration: A key issue is Indian buyers’ history of renegotiating or even abandoning near-complete deals, which creates uncertainty for suppliers.

In Ramesh’s view, “this preference for flexibility and cost-effectiveness over long-term commitments highlights India's focus on securing the best prices for its consumers in a volatile global market – but it could limit LNG growth prospects.”

Delays at infrastructure build-out hampers the development of India’s overall gas and power gen sector. Regasification terminals remain concentrated in the western part of the country, and efforts to expand the gas pipeline network to other regions have been inconsistent.

“Slow progress is due to regulatory hurdles, challenges in securing investments, difficult terrain, and competing priorities,” he criticised, “as India channels significant resources into renewable energy development alongside its gas infrastructure.”

Domestic production can’t meet demand

Come 2040, India’s total gas consumption is forecast to double to almost 114 billion cubic metres (bcm) and despite a 51 percent jump in domestic production to 36.7 bcm by 2025, this will not suffice to meet India’s growing energy hunger. The Asian powerhouse and most populous nation will hence heavily rely on imports to meet its future energy needs.

Long-term contracts, extending way into the 2030s and beyond, help shield India from global price fluctuations and ensure a steady stream of cargoes shipped to Indian shores. Through these LNG offtake accords, India does not only strengthen its energy security but also facilitates a swift exit from more emission-intensive fuels like crude oil, mazut and thermal coal.

Coal still king in India, at least for now

India’s heavy reliance on coal has become apparent during the summer 2024 heatwaves, which temporarily propelled up coal-burn to meet peak power demand. Natural gas, on the other hand, currently accounts for just 2 percent of the country’s power mix – and in fact, coal-generated power is not projected to start falling this side of 2040.

Though gas-burn is unlikely to drive LNG imports, analysts at Oslo-based Rystad Energy believe “the sector could still see growth, however, depending on future policies to promote coal-to-gas switching or introduce carbon pricing.”

Global LNG markets have been pretty unphased by last week’s US election results: near-term demand fundamentals are net bearish as traders await the onset of more severe winter weather. Looking at Q1-2025, uncertainty abounds with regards to Egypt’s LNG demand due to insufficient domestic gas production and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Italian energy company Eni is contemplating the impact of its new “significant” natural gas discovery in the Baltim South West exploration prospect in the waters of the Nile Delta offshore Egypt.