LNG

June 19 (LNGJ) – A steady number of laden LNG carriers are heading for Europe from Qatar. They include the 210,100 cubic metres capacity Q-Flex carrier “Al Ruwais”, which lifted a cargo on May 19 from the Ras Laffan plant in Qatar and would be arriving off Gibraltar on June 20 to await orders, according to shipping data.

   Another shipment departed from Ras Laffan on May 23 on the “Celsius Gandhinagar”, a vessel with 180,000 cubic metres capacity, and was scheduled to berth at the Belgian terminal in Zeebrugge on June 23.

Liquefied natural gas and wholesale pipeline gas values in Europe and Asia as well as US Gulf Coast LNG cargo futures rebounded on higher demand forecasts even as storage was mixed and temperatures warmer.

European and Asian liquefied natural gas prices rebounded from three-year lows as cooler weather and the return of government energy policy uncertainties offset high global storage levels and concerns over trade route insecurity.

European and Asian natural gas futures and spot prices declined again as markets were confident that threats to shipping would be stopped in strategic trading routes as some European Union nations even managed to build gas storage levels in the week before entering 2024.

The London-based Joint War Committee, which advises Lloyd’s marine insurance underwriters on risk, has expanded the portion of the Red Sea that is considered to be part of the riskiest waters for insurance purposes following continued attacks by Iran-backed forces on global shipping traversing the Suez Canal after passing Yemen.

Shipping analysts said that the cost of insurance cover has surged almost 10-fold since the missile attacks from Iran-supported Houthti rebels in Yemen first began as a show of support for the Hamas terror group by Iran using its proxies in Yemen.

The latest liquefied natural gas prices are largely unaffected by a market currently experiencing a supply glut because of mild weather in Europe and ample storage levels and global supplies.

The Dutch Title Transfer Facility price was quoted at around $11.185 per million British thermal units on December 19, its lowest level since 2021 and with the UK National Balancing Point price at $11.240 per MMBtu.

The Japan Korea-Marker price for spot cargoes sold to North Asia was at an unchanged level of $15.197 per MMBtu, a bit less than last week. The JKM was also moving to the February front-month with new lower values of $12.372 per MMBtu.

Analysts said that with Iran leading Yemen’s Houthi rebels in their missile attacks on shipping, the greatest price risk for LNG, oil and other fuels is an attack by Iran on shipping in the Arabian Gulf that could lead to the Shaat-al-Arab waterway route in and out of the Gulf being closed.

This would lead to the cut off of about one-fifth of global LNG supplies that is currently supplied by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Possible outcomes

The analysts added that a Gulf shipping shutdown could happen if Iran sucker-punches an innocent vessel in the Gulf or Iran is itself is sucker-punched by Israel.

Iran is also heading for severe sanctions for its proxy war on global shipping that is proceeding because part of the Iranian armed forces in the Revolutionary Guard has apparently gone rogue. Analysts stated that the overthrow of the Tehran regime and the freeing of the long-suffering Iranian people may be nearer that most people currently could imagine.

A missile fired by the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi rebels has just hit another cargo ship in the Red Sea near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait leading to and from the Suez Canal, following other attacks in previous days against various vessels and where Iranian ships posing as legitimate cargo vessels were confirmed as acting as command ships for the attacks.

The containerships and tankers owner Maersk, the world’s biggest shipping company, and Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd as well as BP Shipping of the UK and many other companies, have stopped their fleets from taking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait past Yemen to or from the Suez Canal.

The BP LNG and tanker fleet would be particularly vulnerable as they mostly have the word “British” in their names which would be seen to attract terrorism unless there was a Royal Navy vessel nearby.

Among the BP LNG fleet, the “British Listener” was lifting a cargo from the Mozambique FLNG hull “Coral Sul” offshore the southeast African nation so is well placed to deliver into Asia far from the Red Sea and would be likely heading for South Korea.

Other basins

The BP LNG vessels are mostly doing shuttle deliveries from Mozambique to Asia as BP has purchased all of the offtake from very first but not the last Mozambique project. Some of BP's LNG carriers are operating in the Asia-Pacific market.

The “British Contributor”, for example, is scheduled to discharge a cargo on December 25 at the Sendai import terminal in Japan after lifting it from the Northwest Shelf plant in Western Australia.

One of the few LNG carriers in the East Mediterranean on December 19 was the “BW Tulip” that had just delivered a shipment to the Marmara Ereglisi import terminal in Turkey and was heading through the West Mediterranean into the Atlantic and with the destination given as the Freeport plant in Texas, according to shipping data.

Another LNG carrier in the West Med off Gibraltar was the “Diamond Gas Metropolis”, with 174,000 cubic metres capacity. This ship was now heading for the UK Isle of Grain LNG import terminal near London with a cargo lifted from the Cameron plant in Louisiana on December 8.

Most carriers using the Suez Canal would come from Qatar on the East-to-West route for Europe while those going West to East would be rarer and carrying cargoes stored off a port like Gibraltar and delivered to Italy, Spain or Turkey and very unusually now India via the Suez Canal or further afield via Suez.

That’s as the norms of LNG carrier and other energy and container shipping navigation have been upended by a year of chaos and sky-high tariffs at the Panama Canal caused by the drought in the region and low water levels in the Gatun Lake that is part of the Canal water system.

European liquefied natural gas prices declined for a fourth week even as some European Union nations began drawing on record storage levels attained without Russian pipeline gas while North Asian spot cargo prices increased and cargo flows were high to China.

Asian liquefied natural gas spot prices edged lower for August while the European Union wholesale gas benchmark plunged on the week to a 26-month low under $9 per million British thermal units - after being at $53 per MMBtu a year ago - as gas demand dropped on the Continent and EU gas storage was filling up.

Asian liquefied natural gas spot prices dropped as cargo liftings increased while the European Union wholesale gas benchmark declined for a fourth week to just over $10 per million British thermal units exactly one year after hitting more than $50 per MMBtu.

Asian liquefied natural gas prices increased as cargo deliveries to China, Japan and South Korea neared 60 shipments per week while European Union wholesale gas prices stalled as storage levels reached more than 80 percent in nations like Germany, Italy and Spain.

June 12 (LNGJ) - Three LNG cargoes are heading for Belgium and the Netherlands this week as the European LNG market price linked to the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark rebounded to above $10 per million British thermal units. The “Al Deebel” with 143,000 cubic metres of capacity is scheduled to deliver a Qatari cargo on June 13 to the Belgian terminal at Zeebrugge and lifted at Ras Laffan in Qatar on May 25, according to shipping data.

   Two other deliveries are headed for the Netherlands. The Q-Flex carrier “Al Karaana” with 206,000 cubic metres of capacity is due to discharge a cargo on June 15 at the Dutch Gate terminal in Rotterdam and which was loaded in Qatar on May 26. The 173,000 cubic metres capacity vessel “Myrina” is scheduled to arrive on June 16 at the Dutch Eemshaven terminal with a US cargo from the Sabine Pass plant lifted on May 31 from the facility in Louisiana.