Stalled US-Iran negotiations are manifesting LNG price premiums this autumn, with the average price for an October cargo delivered to Northeast Asia forecast at $22.50 per MMBtu. The geopolitical premium is firmly engrained in global LNG markets, fuelling a bullish sentiment in Asia where the price of delivered LNG increased by$0.85/MMBtu week-on-week to nearly$22.10/MMBtu.
The United States has launched what it calls an “economic D‑Day” against Iran, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extending sanctions against nearly 60 Iran-linked entities and vessels, raising stakes for oil and LNG trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Qatari government has ordered ministries to cut their budgets by up to 30% and slash overseas aid after LNG revenues collapsed. The 2026 state budget had been set at $61 billion at the start of the year, but since then, Qatar’s LNG-dependent economy has been hit hard by war-related damage to its Ras Laffan LNG hub and persistent shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Two LNG tankers seem to have conducted a ship-to-ship (STS) transfer outside the Strait of Hormuz, as suppliers seek to keep fuel moving from inside the Persian Gulf to global markets.
Transits of crude oil and LNG tankers through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed sharply over the weekend as shipowners and operators reacted to latest attacks on tankers and stalled U.S.-Iran talks.
QatarEnergies has notified Edison that it is unable to deliver three LNG cargoes, extending force majeure until the end of September, the Italian utility stated. A total of 24 cargoes, representing a combined 3 bcm of natural gas, are now subject to force majeure over the April-September delivery window, with Edison saying it has already replaced most of the lost volumes.
Energy Aspects has pushed back its Qatari LNG ramp-up forecast by a further two weeks, now expecting a partial recovery from mid-August. Q3-26 loadings are seen at 5.4 million tons, down from 6.1 Mt previously, as markets price in elevated risk from prolonged Hormuz disruptions, though TTF is still unlikely to exceed €70/MWh over the balance of summer.
Soaring LNG trade flows from the US and Canada have offset around 70% of the lost supply via the Strait of Hormuz, though further military escalations in the region and delays in restoring Qatari exports keeps could prolong market tightness into 2027, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns.
An oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile, forcing the crew to abandon ship, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO). No LNG carriers or very large very large crude carriers (VLCCs) were seen passing through the strait this week so far, as shipowners take precautions.
Crude oil and LNG shippers are waiting for more details after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would impose a 20% charge on all cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a move the U.N.’s International Maritime Organization said it strongly opposes as unlawful.