Transits of crude oil and LNG tankers through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed sharply over the weekend as shipowners and operators reacted to latest attacks on tankers and stalled U.S.-Iran talks.
QatarEnergies has notified Edison that it is unable to deliver three LNG cargoes, extending force majeure until the end of September, the Italian utility stated. A total of 24 cargoes, representing a combined 3 bcm of natural gas, are now subject to force majeure over the April-September delivery window, with Edison saying it has already replaced most of the lost volumes.
Energy Aspects has pushed back its Qatari LNG ramp-up forecast by a further two weeks, now expecting a partial recovery from mid-August. Q3-26 loadings are seen at 5.4 million tons, down from 6.1 Mt previously, as markets price in elevated risk from prolonged Hormuz disruptions, though TTF is still unlikely to exceed €70/MWh over the balance of summer.
Soaring LNG trade flows from the US and Canada have offset around 70% of the lost supply via the Strait of Hormuz, though further military escalations in the region and delays in restoring Qatari exports keeps could prolong market tightness into 2027, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns.
An oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile, forcing the crew to abandon ship, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO). No LNG carriers or very large very large crude carriers (VLCCs) were seen passing through the strait this week so far, as shipowners take precautions.
Crude oil and LNG shippers are waiting for more details after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would impose a 20% charge on all cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a move the U.N.’s International Maritime Organization said it strongly opposes as unlawful.
The arbitrage for flexible US LNG cargoes heading to Asia is open with spreads between the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) and the Dutch TTF widening, as the tepid recovery of Qatari and UAE LNG exports is unlikely to outpace rebounding Asian demand.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, with 22 Japan-linked ships, including six large crude oil tankers and several LNG carriers, transited the strait to exit between July 7 and 9, transport minister Yasushi Kaneko said at a news conference in Tokyo. The number of Japan-flagged vessels in the Gulf has fallen from 45 to just four, with shipowners declining to comment on safety precautions for the crew.
Five crude oil and LNG tankers have turned back from attempts to transit the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the area. As tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran continue, maritime authorities raised the risk of transiting Hormuz to “severe.”
India has lifted an order imposing restrictions on gas suppliers as LNG deliveries from the Middle East resume. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas on Saturday withdrew provisions which had mandated all imported LNG and domestically produced gas to be sold to a list of priority customers.