LNG

Lithuania’s Ignitis has agreed to buy U.S.-linked LNG from EQT, under a sales and purchase agreement (SPA) covering 10 cargoes delivered each year between 2027 and 2036. The deal marks Ignitis first long-term SPA with a US company and introduces Henry Hub-linked pricing into its procurement portfolio.

Stalled US-Iran negotiations are manifesting LNG price premiums this autumn, with the average price for an October cargo delivered to Northeast Asia forecast at $22.50 per MMBtu. The geopolitical premium is firmly engrained in global LNG markets, fuelling a bullish sentiment in Asia where the price of delivered LNG increased by$0.85/MMBtu week-on-week to nearly$22.10/MMBtu.

Atlantic freight rates for spot LNG cargoes have fallen to a seasonal low of $20,000 per day, down $31 over the last fortnight, opening the arbitrage window for US LNG heading to Europe rather than Asia. Several LNG charterers have fixed vessels below round-trip economics due to a lack of fresh enquiry for Atlantic cargoes from Pacific Basin buyers, while shipowners are seen to be reluctant to ballast vessels westward.

The September Henry Hub contract settled 8.6 cents higher at $2.759 per million British thermal units on Wednesday, according to CME data. Analysts anticipate further price rises as weather forecasts turned hotter across the southern and western part of the US. Eli Rubin, senior energy analyst at EBW Analytics Group, said peak demand on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system could set a new record this week. The grid operator forecast demand would exceed its 91.089-gigawatt (GW) record on each day from August 20 through August 24, with the potential to rise by almost 1 GW above the previous peak later in the period. Houston temperatures are expected to average about 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) this entire week through August 23, roughly 5 F above normal, according to AccuWeather data.

Record US natural gas production and sustained sub-$3.50/MMBtu Henry Hub prices are set to strengthen the economics of both LNG export expansions and new gas-fired power projects and, even as global demand tightens.

Henry Hub cash and bal-summer price are set to soften as additional Texas-to-Louisiana pipeline capacity boosts LNG feedgas flows towards the US Gulf Coast, easing oversupply in Texas.

The decade of structurally cheap US gas is drawing to a close, with Henry Hub prices forecast to rise towards $5 per MMBtu by 2035 from below $3 per MMBtu, as LNG demand growth tightens domestic balances, Wood Mackenzie said.

Expand Energy has terminated its first-ever offtake agreement with Delphin LNG and replaced it with a larger contract that more than doubles volumes to  1.15 mtpa of LNG per year at Henry‑Hub‑linked pricing. Shipments will originate from Delfin FLNG Vessel 1, with targeted commercial start around 2031.

Regional US gas prices in the Southwest and Southern California are trading near zero, even as LNG export demand hits maximum capacity. Domestic gas output exceeds 105 Bcf/d, flooding storage and capping upside, while LNG feedgas demand increased to 20.3 Bcf/d amid soaring US LNG export driven by panic buying.

Fracking in the Permian Basin has staged a record 11% annual rise in gas production, adding 2.7 bcf/d to reach 27.7 bcf/d, suppored by break-even prices as low as $61 per barrel in the Midland Basin, one of the Permian's largest oil and associated gas formations.