LNG

Henry Hub cash and bal-summer price are set to soften as additional Texas-to-Louisiana pipeline capacity boosts LNG feedgas flows towards the US Gulf Coast, easing oversupply in Texas.

The decade of structurally cheap US gas is drawing to a close, with Henry Hub prices forecast to rise towards $5 per MMBtu by 2035 from below $3 per MMBtu, as LNG demand growth tightens domestic balances, Wood Mackenzie said.

Expand Energy has terminated its first-ever offtake agreement with Delphin LNG and replaced it with a larger contract that more than doubles volumes to  1.15 mtpa of LNG per year at Henry‑Hub‑linked pricing. Shipments will originate from Delfin FLNG Vessel 1, with targeted commercial start around 2031.

Regional US gas prices in the Southwest and Southern California are trading near zero, even as LNG export demand hits maximum capacity. Domestic gas output exceeds 105 Bcf/d, flooding storage and capping upside, while LNG feedgas demand increased to 20.3 Bcf/d amid soaring US LNG export driven by panic buying.

Fracking in the Permian Basin has staged a record 11% annual rise in gas production, adding 2.7 bcf/d to reach 27.7 bcf/d, suppored by break-even prices as low as $61 per barrel in the Midland Basin, one of the Permian's largest oil and associated gas formations.

Elevated US gas production is offsetting the bullish price impact of unseasonably cold weather through early March, while the ramp-up of Golden Pass LNG lifted feedgas intake to about 0.25 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d).

Canada's Whitecap Resources has agreed to deliver 50,000 MMBtu/day – equivalent of five LNG cargoes annually – to Centrica starting from April 2028, with pricing linked to Europe’s TTF benchmark.

US LNG exporters are selling cargoes abroad at prices roughly twice the Henry Hub benchmark, allowing export demand to set a higher clearing price in the domestic power market. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows the average LNG export sale price was $7.87 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in 2025 versus $3.66/Mcf for Henry Hub.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan has expressed reluctance to spend the company’s own equity on US LNG projects, citing the availability of low-cost infrastructure funding. His remark signals a shift towards prioritising shareholder returns over equity commitment in an increasingly oversupplied global LNG market.

Feedgas intake at Freeport LNG is ramping up following a brief shutdown last week. A compressor system malfunction had reduced feedgas to 1.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), well below the terminal’s full capacity of around 2 bcfd across all trains.