LNG

Gazprom, the Russian natural gas company impacted by sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, is trying to rebuild its business by signing deals for gas transportation exits via the three Central Asian former Soviet states of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan as well as its neighbour across the Black Sea, Turkey.

Gazprom has just signed contracts with Kazakhstan for gas transit to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

The documents were signed at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum held by the Russians.

Gazprom has ambitious plans to ramp up gas supplies to Central Asia and Turkey.

The company aims to deliver significantly larger volumes via the Central Asia-China Pipeline for 15 years starting in 2025. 

The Central Asia-China pipeline is a network of natural gas pipelines that transport natural gas from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan into China.

With a 55 billion cubic metres capacity, the same as the now defunct Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany, the 1,833-kilometres (1,140 miles) Central Asia-China Pipeline presently comprises three sections (Lines A, B, and C), running from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to China’s Uygur Xinjiang Autonomous Region.

From there, the pipeline links up with the West-to-East Gas Pipeline in China, underscoring its significance in regional energy dynamics.

Gazprom added that it had also signed a contract for the supply of gas to the north and south of Kyrgyzstan.

Larger volumes

In addition, Gazprom and Kazakhstan signed an action plan to prepare gas facilities in Central Asia to increase the transportation of Russian gas to Uzbekistan.

In June 2023, Uzbekistan concluded a two-year gas purchase agreement with Gazprom.

The daily supply volume is 9 million cubic metres and the annual volume is almost 2.8 billion cubic metres and deliveries started in October 2023.

From November 2025, Gazprom said it planned to begin supplying “significantly larger volumes” covered by 15-year contracts with Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

In February 2024, it was reported that the government of Uzbekistan intends to upgrade the republic’s main gas system in order to increase gas imports from the Russian Federation by 3.5 times from 9 million cubic metres per day to 32 mcm per day.

BOTAŞ venture

Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar was also at the Russian Forum and said the Turkish Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAŞ) planned to set up a joint venture company with Gazprom as part of a plan to establish a hub in Turkey for selling natural gas.

“Significant work has been done in recent years to establish a natural gas trading centre in Turkey,” said Bayraktar.

“We are now planning to establish an operating company in partnership with BOTAŞ and Gazprom in Istanbul,” he added.

“In the coming months, we would like to carry out concrete work and realise the gas hub project,” stated Bayraktar.

Azerbaijan, the Central Asian nation and former Soviet republic, has issued its quarterly natural gas pipeline export data that affects LNG requirements in Southern Europe.

The German Association of Transmission System Operators (FNB Gas) said that members have decided that the financing model for the hydrogen core network to run alongside natural gas must be suitable for investment by mainstream capital markets.

FNB Gas wants the core network to have a balanced risk-reward ratio and “state protection at all times and for all core network operators” to increase legal certainty.

FNB Gas Managing Director Barbara Fischer emphasized the need for the financing model to be suitable for the capital markets.

Her statement came as the “expert hearing” took placein the Committee for Climate Protection and Energy in the German Bundestag in Berlin on the draft law to amend the Energy Industry Act with regulations for the financing of the core network.

“The transmission system operators (TSOs) agree with the federal government that the hydrogen infrastructure in Germany should be financed privately,” explained Fischer.

Financing model

“To this end, the draft law presents a fundamentally functional financing model, with which the necessary private capital can only be mobilized if investors consider it to be suitable for the capital market and the investment conditions are at least no worse than for investments in other infrastructure areas such as electricity,” she added.

“There is currently a higher interest rate, no run-up risk and no deductible risk,” stated Fischer.

“In order not to jeopardize the success of core network planning to date, from an investor perspective, a few but crucial changes to the draft law are necessary. The main aim is to improve risk assessment for investors,” Fischer declared.

FNB Gas also noted that the network operators' “conditioned tender obligation” must be supplemented by an unconditional tender right of the network operators in the event of failure of the market ramp-up. 

“A contract under public law would increase legal certainty,” said FNB Gas.

Capacity reservations

FNB Gas said earlier in February that members were seeking more capacity reservations and capacity expansion for pipelines as well as more sector benefits from imported and regasified LNG and from power plants in accordance with the new gas industry framework for Germany.

According to the German federal government's draft law, the TSOs and the regulated operators of hydrogen transport networks must create the framework for the first integrated network for gas and hydrogen by June 30, 2024.

The FNB plan focuses on the conversion of 60 percent of existing gas pipelines to carry hydrogen, which is additionally burdened by being more explosive than natural gas.

FNB has also previously outlined the future role of LNG import facilities at the coastal locations of the North Sea port of Wilhelmshaven, at Brunsbüttel on the Elbe and at the Baltic Port of Lubmin.

FNB Gas, which comes from the German words Fernleitungsnetzbetreiber, groups a dozen companies overseeing 40,000 kilometres (25,000 miles) of natural gas pipeline flows and other infrastructure.

The TSOs had earlier presented their draft gas network development plan through 2032 and which reflected the far-reaching changes in Germany's energy supply now that Russian pipeline gas deliveries have ended.

Gas demand issues

FNB Gas, which is based in Berlin and was founded in 2012, believes that German natural gas consumption was expected to fall by at least 20 percent by 2032.

Germany first presented its hydrogen strategy in mid-2020 under the Government of Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The strategy was continued by the Government coalition after Merkel of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Green Party and the Free Democrats.

The three parties agreed to present an ambitious update to the strategy to make the country a leading market for hydrogen technologies by 2030.

Members of FNB Gas are the following companies: bayernets GmbH, Ferngas Netzgesellschaft GmbH, Fluxys TENP GmbH, Gascade Gastransport GmbH, Gastransport Nord GmbH, Gasunie Deutschland Transport Services GmbH, GRTgaz Deutschland GmbH, Nowega GmbH, ONTRAS Gastransport GmbH, Open Grid Europe GmbH, terranets bw GmbH and Thyssengas GmbH.

Liquefied natural gas has been crucial in navigating through the gas market crisis, playing a key role in offsetting the shortages in Europe, with global LNG exports showing a first-half 2023 year-over-year increase of more than 4 percent despite volatilities due to facility maintenance and outages in the Northern Hemisphere summer months.

The market report and outlook comes from the 90-page Global Gas Report 2023 just issued by the International Gas Union, the global voice of the gas industry with more than 150 corporate members in over 80 countries, representing 90 percent of the global gas market and whose President is Li Yalan of China.

“In the context of the globally tight LNG supply, while it was instrumental in keeping the lights on in Europe, the unaffordable prices left some countries in Asia in the dark,” the IGU stated.

“Europe’s natural gas imports shifted from Russian pipelines towards LNG leading to a 69 percent increase in its LNG imports, reaching 124 million tonnes (169 billion cubic metres) and making Europe the biggest importing market, absorbing a significant share of the global LNG volume by outbidding other customers,” the IGU added.

The IGU noted that roughly two thirds of the additional volumes, or 30MT of LNG,came from the United States and in Asia, China reduced LNG imports from Australia and the US by a total of 21MT, while it increased imports from Qatar by around 7.4MT.

Supply shortage

The IGU also stated natural gas prices had cooled in 2023, largely due to demand-side adjustments in Europe and Asia, yet they remain above pre-Covid and pre-energy crisis levels. 

“The shortage of global supply, which was the key reason behind last year’s shocks, is still there: the market is in a state of a fragile and unstable equilibrium,” the IGU explained, citing marginal supply growth and the need for more infrastructure de-bottlenecking.

The report added that Europe's growing dependence on LNG has rendered global gas prices increasingly vulnerable to liquefaction and shipping supply risks.

Global natural gas production in 2022 stayed flat in comparison with the previous year with a marginal 8.3 Bcm uptick, which was less than a 0.5 percent increase year-on-year.

However, the IGU said that first half of 2023 saw a mild revival in global gas supply, yet the final annual result remains uncertain. 

“Looking back, the curtailment of Gazprom’s output in Russia was offset by supply growth in North America, which grew from 1,160 Bcm to 1,213 Bcm, and in the Middle East, which grew from 670 Bcm in 2021 to 687 Bcm in 2022,” the IGU said.

“In Europe, incremental production in 2022 largely came from Norway, which has been maximising output (7 percent growth year-on-year) to increase exports to the rest of the continent,” the report added.

“In Asia, gas production rose modestly from 696 Bcm in 2021 to 712 Bcm in 2022, driven mainly by higher production in China and Central Asia,” said the report.

“By contrast, Africa experienced falling gas production of 1 percent (2.9 Bcm) between 2021 and 2022,” the report stated.