LNG

The body representing German pipeline operators has issued its network development plan for gas from 2020-2030 and is preparing for the arrival of LNG cargoes in addition to pipeline supplies from Russia and Norway.

“The additional measures compared to the previous gas network development plans are largely in place in connection with the supply of Baden-Württemberg, the connection of the LNG terminals and the necessary expansion measures for ‘green gases’ and security of supply in the Netherlands,” said the German Association of Transmission System Operators (FNB) in its report.

The Germans form Europe’s biggest natural gas market after the UK and the nation is an importer of more than 90 percent of its needs.

It receives Russian natural gas via Ukraine and Poland and from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline across the Baltic Sea for onward distribution to other EU countries in the region.

Germany will additionally be joining the LNG market by 2022 with volumes from North America and elsewhere with regasification and import terminals planned for on onshore Elbe River terminal at Brunsbuettel near Hamburg and a floating storage and regasification unit at the North Sea port of Wilhelmshaven.

“For the bottleneck analysis in the Germany-wide Trading Hub Europe market area, over 51,000 individual load cases per calculation year are used,” it added.

“In the considered scenarios with different characteristics of forecast market shifts there are significant variations in the different
sources of gas from Russia, Norway and LNG,” stated the FNB.

“The transmission system operators provided results for the Gas 2020–2030 network development plan, including information obtained through public consultation and thus meet the requirements of the Energy Industry Act and the Gas Network Access Ordinance,” explained the FNB.

In the scenario framework, there are two possible outcomes for the development of gas demand in Germany up to the year 2030.

These scenarios take into account the current European climate protection goals.

With a network extending approximately 40,000 kilometres in length, the German transmission system operators form the backbone of the entire gas transport system in Germany.

The distribution system for natural gas that is fed by the transmission system is more than 470,000km long.

The existing gas infrastructure can make a significant and economically valuable contribution in the energy system of the future.

Gas itself is a climate-friendly source of energy and can become completely climate-neutral. The gas infrastructure opens up the opportunity to transport very large quantities of renewable energy as well as to store it long term.

Through the integration of “green gases” in the existing infrastructure, it is noted that a significant contribution can be made swiftly and cost-efficiently to the reduction of CO2 emissions.

“The transmission system operators also have plans for a hydrogen network based on the market needs and fleshed out by 2030,” said the FNB.

“These plans are a first step towards a national one and prospective European hydrogen network,” it added.

It was noted that it would seem to make sense to put this infrastructure to work in the future to transport “green gas”, i.e. climate-neutral gas obtained from biogas or generated synthetically from renewable electricity in the form of hydrogen or methane.

LNG facilities should also be taken into consideration “in competition for planning purposes” so that the networks are not designed to be able to take over further capacity from LNG facilities in addition to any takeover of the network entry points.

Furthermore, LNG facilities are likely to be in competition with each other.

The design of the rival marketing will enable capacity that is not nominated or not booked in the short and medium term to be used at the rival points.

The proposed rival planning is intended to allow the LNG facilities to maintain freely allocable capacity.

“The overall comparatively low cost of using market-based instruments in the gas marketing year, from the perspective of the transmission system operators, do not offer sufficient justification for an alternative Network expansion,” said the FNB.

“In terms of a needs-based network expansion, an evaluation of possible structural measures should be carried out for the period after the gas business year 2025-2026 as an alternative to the use of market-based instruments,” it added.

Natural gas supplies about 24 percent of Germany’s energy needs today, a figure that rises to 45 percent for heating and gas beats electricity by more than a factor of four.

The gas network also has substantial storage capacity, as it has to cope with significant seasonality.

Average gas consumption in February is more than three times greater than in August.

To meet the spike in demand in winter, Germany has gas storage volume of around 260 terawatt hours, enough to cover peak demand for more than two months without additional supply sources.

The body representing German pipeline operators said the leading European Union nation would have enough natural gas this winter, despite restrictions on transit routes for Russian supplies because of an EU ruling in favour of Poland and as Germany is developing its first LNG import facilities.