Asia’s LNG imports are set to hit a six-month high in July, while Europe’s imports are expected to fall to their lowest level in nearly two years. Asia is projected to take 23.05 million metric tons of LNG this month, up from 22.60 million tons in June, while Europe is forecast at 6.56 million tons, down from 7.21 million tons in June, according to Reuters and Kpler data.
Europe's LNG intake fell about 16 percent in June, and reporting has placed the decline on lower US deliveries. The vessel record complicates that reading. US terminals loaded 151 cargoes in June, level with the 149 of May and above the 2025 monthly average of 136. Loadings did not fall. What changed was where the gas went.
Most European LNG buyers are expected to import less than anticipated due to higher prices and tighter markets, with Poten & Partners estimating around 17 mtpa of demand destruction this year, particularly in Italy and Belgium.
European buyers are shying away from signing long-term offtake contracts for US LNG, making it harder for new export projects to secure financing and move towards construction.
As Asian netbacks for delivered LNG cargoes outbid European prices, buyers are struggling to attract sufficient volumes to offset a looming storage shortfall. An additional 40 cargoes per month would be needed over the next five months, according to ICIS calculations, though economists doubt this is achievable.
Europe is hard pressed to start importing LNG as storage levels are below 30% as of mid-April. The EU27 would need an optimal LNG supply equivalent to 86 bcm for six months, the European Network Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) said in its summer 2026 outlook.
Bangladesh’s Petrobangla and several Indian buyers are tendering for spot LNG, puling more than 11 cargoes away from Europe towards Asia by early April. Further diversions are likely since Indian companies awarded only 4 out of 15 spot LNG tenders for April and May so far, according to Platts data.
Europe is turning to the US as the most flexible source of replacement gas for lost Qatari volumes, with the share of US LNG soaring to nearly 60% of all LNG arrivals into the EU since the Iran war escalated, according to Kpler data.
Gas prices at the Dutch TTF, Europe’s benchmark gas trading hub, could average €90-100 per Megawatt-hour (MWh) if the shut-in of Ras Laffan and suspension of Qatari LNG shipment continues for the next three months, an analysts’ poll finds.
Buyers in the EU have been snapping up all LNG from Russia’s Yamal terminal they can secure, just month before a full EU ban on Russian gas exports will take effect at the start of 2027.