LNG

The Australian energy industry has been unsettled by environmental activists using an Aboriginal woman and additionally citing concern for whales and managing to persuade a Federal Court to delay Woodside Energy’s US$12 billion Scarborough gas project for LNG expansion, citing seismic testing approval deficiencies.

The Scarborough gas project is one of the few moving forward in Australia and has been specially targeted by environmental activists who have now succeeded in delaying Woodside’s plans as the previously approved seismic testing programme has now been called into question.

The Australian Federal Court by a decision handed down on September 28 has invalidated approvals given to Woodside by the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority (NOPSEMA).

Perth-based Woodside has yet to issue a formal response to the court decision.

Previous ruling

The Supreme Court of Western Australia had previously, in March 2022, dismissed two proceedings brought against the Pluto LNG and Karratha Gas Plant environmental approvals given in 2019.

In the latest hearing, Justice Craig Coleman found that NOPSEMA, did not have the statutory power to accept Woodside’s environment plan because he wasn’t reasonably satisfied that all relevant stakeholders had been consulted, including some local Aboriginals.

The Pluto LNG onshore processing facility is located on the Burrup Peninsula near Karratha in the northwest of Western Australia and the first cargo from the current single-Train facility was delivered in 2012.

The second Train planned using Scarborough field gas will have 5 million tonnes per annum of output and take total nameplate capacity to around 9.2 MTPA.

The Scarborough field is located about 375 kilometres (233 miles) off the coast of Western Australia and is estimated to contain over 11 trillion cubic feet of dry gas.

Aboriginal voice

In the Court decision to delay, the environmentalists had called on an Aboriginal woman named as Raelene Cooper to seek a court injunction to reverse the seismic testing approval, citing opposition from the “traditional custodians” of the Burrup Peninsula who seemingly had never been properly consulted.

After the ruling a statement was released on behalf of Mrs Cooper in which she said she was “elated” by the decision and described the legal win as more than a personal victory.

“I want my mob back home to be empowered by this day today. This is bigger than me,” she said. “It's about my people and our history. We've been forgotten and treated so badly,” the woman added.

“Woodside just came and told us what was happening,” she said. “They never bothered to sit down and listen to Murujuga traditional custodians about the full impacts of their Burrup hub operations on our culture and our sacred song lines,” she stated.

The Australian Government said that given the inherent seasonal variability in European natural gas consumption driven by heating demand, there remains a risk of further price volatility in 2023 as seasonal conditions change.

The European Union currently lacks the firm liquefied natural gas contracts needed to fully offset lost Russian pipeline gas volumes, which will force the bloc to source its marginal LNG supplies from global spot markets when needed, according to the latest Australian “Resources and Energy Quarterly” from the Office of the Chief Economist.

“As such, LNG markets are expected to remain in moderate shortfall over 2024 and early 2025, as Europe continues to replace lost Russian pipeline gas with LNG imports,” stated the report.

“Our base case is for Asian spot prices to average US$14/MMBtu over the outlook period, with risks skewed to the upside for the reasons mentioned above,” added the report.

“While this price is well below levels averaged over 2022 (US$33/MMBtu), it is still double the five year, pre-2020 average of US$7/MMBtu,” stated the report.

Export plants

Australia itself has 10 LNG export plant and in 2022 shipped 82 million tonnes of LNG valued at A$91 billion (US$60.55Bln).

The report forecasts that national LNG income will fall through fiscal 2024-2025 to A$60Bln (US$40Bln), with volumes also easing to 79MT over the same period.

“While volatility in LNG markets could re-emerge over the Northern Hemisphere winter and boost spot sale earnings, the base case is that lower energy prices will cause the value of Australian LNG exports to fall,” said the report.

The cargoes last year were mainly delivered to Asia and with 80 percent of volumes being unloaded in Japan, China and South Korea.

Around 75 percent of the cargoes were sold under long-term contracts.

The Australians believe that global LNG trade is expected to grow by 13 percent, or 51MT, over the two-year outlook relative to 2022.

Almost half of the growth (24MT) will come from newly commissioned US LNG plants, while facilities in Nigeria will also contribute 7MT.

Forecasts indicate that most of the new production should be sold to Europe, which is expected to increase its LNG imports from 121MT to 147MT between 2023 and 2025, respectively.

ASEAN volumes

“But ASEAN, Australia’s closest export market, will likely be the second-largest source of demand growth as Vietnam and the Philippines start importing LNG, with total ASEAN demand rising by 11MT over the outlook (two-year) period,” added the report.

The report explained that despite the favourable environment for LNG producers, the outlook for Australia was mixed.

“Australian LNG exports are forecast to fall marginally, as existing facilities face difficulties back-filling their operations with gas from new reserves,” said the report.

“At the same time, investment in offshore exploration remains low despite high commodity prices, which could impact Australian gas production beyond the outlook period,” it declared.

Australian LNG operator Santos has taken a positive final investment decision to proceed with the offshore Barossa natural gas field joint venture to provide new feed gas for the Darwin LNG plant supplying Japan.

BW Offshore, the Norway-listed floating production units provider for oil and gas, has been awarded an Australian contract worth US$4.6Bln by LNG operator Santos for the Barossa gas field to provide feed-gas for the Darwin liquefaction plant.

Woodside, the Australian LNG export plant operator, has received a regulatory permit for the Scarborough gas field development offshore Western Australia, even as the final investment decision has been deferred until 2021.

Woodside, the operator of two Australian liquefaction plants and with a stake in Kitimat LNG project in Canada, said its LNG processing hub on the Burrup Peninsula of Western Australia was taking shape as the Perth-based company recorded lacklustre earnings hit by low prices and operational issues.

Australian company Western Gas said its Equus project in Western Australia was on track for first gas in 2024 following the completion of the upstream and LNG development plans as the company seeks a partner and starts financing activities.