Stalled US-Iran negotiations are manifesting LNG price premiums this autumn, with the average price for an October cargo delivered to Northeast Asia forecast at $22.50 per MMBtu. The geopolitical premium is firmly engrained in global LNG markets, fuelling a bullish sentiment in Asia where the price of delivered LNG increased by$0.85/MMBtu week-on-week to nearly$22.10/MMBtu.
Global gas demand is on course for a 4% fall, with damage to gas processing facilities curbing fertiliser production in the Middle East and high LNG prices accelerating gas-to-coal switching in Asia, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts.
Japan’s JERA is stepping up its LNG-to-power strategy across Asia, offering term LNG shipments and project finance. For India’s Torrent Power, JERA will deliver four cargoes per year from 2027 to fuel 2,730 MW gas-fired powergen capacity along with some city-gas demand.
Asia’s LNG imports are set to hit a six-month high in July, while Europe’s imports are expected to fall to their lowest level in nearly two years. Asia is projected to take 23.05 million metric tons of LNG this month, up from 22.60 million tons in June, while Europe is forecast at 6.56 million tons, down from 7.21 million tons in June, according to Reuters and Kpler data.
Asian LNG demand set to fall for a second consecutive year as Qatari supply disruption pushes spot prices to levels that force buyers to cut volumes and switch fuels. Wood Mackenzie forecasts Asia Pacific demand at 257 million tons (Mt) in 2026, down from 268 Mt in the previous year and a peak of 278 Mt in 2024.
The arbitrage for flexible US LNG cargoes heading to Asia is open with spreads between the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) and the Dutch TTF widening, as the tepid recovery of Qatari and UAE LNG exports is unlikely to outpace rebounding Asian demand.
TotalEnergies has shipped the first LNG cargo from ECA LNG Phase 1 in Mexico to Asia, marking a commissioning milestone for the 3.25 mtpa Pacific-facing terminal, feed with U.S. natural gas delivered by pipeline from Permian Basin.
Europe's LNG intake fell about 16 percent in June, and reporting has placed the decline on lower US deliveries. The vessel record complicates that reading. US terminals loaded 151 cargoes in June, level with the 149 of May and above the 2025 monthly average of 136. Loadings did not fall. What changed was where the gas went.
The Shafallah loaded at Plaquemines in late June, booked for Świnoujście. It is now in the equatorial Atlantic off Brazil, steering south-east and declared for Incheon in South Korea. The Polish delivery has gone, and a cargo bought for northern Europe is now tracking east for Asia.
Russia’s Novatek has begun its 2026 summer Arctic LNG shipping season with simultaneous eastbound cargoes from its Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2 projects via the Northern Sea Route – in the face of Western sanctions and ongoing technical constraints at Arctic LNG 2.