Chinese LNG Demand Outlook

Friday, 04 September 2020
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1.52mmt on the water with a delivery horizon of 10th October, with c. 47% due in the North China region. At the time of writing, we saw three cargoes that originated in the United States. Two other shipments still had to indicate their Chinese destinations.

North China

Of total LNG currently en route to China, we are anticipating 0.71mmt to be delivered to North China – comprising the wider Beijing area and China’s industrial north – with a delivery horizon of 10th October.

Yamal LNG continues to use Northern Sea Route
Current market visibility indicates at least 0.25mmt are destined for PetroChina’s Caofeidian LNG by 22nd September, comprising one cargo each from Tangguh LNG, Angola LNG, PNG LNG and Bonny Island via the Tangguh Palung (0.07mmt), the Sonangol Benguela (0.06mmt), the Papua (0.07mmt) and the LNG Sokoto (0.05mmt).

Meanwhile, PetroChina’s Dalian LNG is looking to receive 0.07mmt by 7th September, taking a 10% share of LNG headed to the region. The Russian cargo was exported by Yamal LNG on 22nd August via the Nikolay Yevgenov. Yamal LNG is continuing to make use of the Northern Sea Route through the arctic during the warm summer months, our data show.

At the North China region’s southernmost border, expected deliveries to Qingdao LNG comprise one Australian cargo via the CESI LianYungAng (0.07mmt), which we expect to arrive by 6th September. The cargo was shipped by Australia Pacific LNG on 30th August.

Some US LNG continues to flow into China
Tianjin-Nangang LNG, meanwhile, is looking to receive five cargoes by 10th October. Notably, the last cargo to arrive within that time frame is the Diamond Gas Rose carrying a Cameron LNG cargo to Tianjin-Nangang, our LNG Market Tracker data indicates. The trade thus marks the continuation of US LNG flows to China in June after US exports to the country resumed in March.

The Grand Elena (0.06mmt), carrying a Sakhalin-2 LNG cargo, is scheduled to arrive by 1st September. Among other cargoes en route, the Arc7 carrier Georgiy Brusilov (0.07mmt) is also carrying a Yamal cargo to Tianjin-Nangang via the Northern Sea Route whilst the LNG Jurojin (0.07mmt) and the BW Tulip (0.07mmt) are carrying two French re-exports, deriving from Fos-sur-Mer and Dunkerque Le Clipton, respectively. The two cargoes’ delivery horizon was 7th September at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, we expect the Maran Gas Olympias and the Gaslog Hong Kong to deliver cargoes of 0.06 and 0.07mmt to a yet-to-be-identified terminal in China by 2nd and 30th September, respectively. The former departed Australia’s Queensland Curtis LNG plant on 19th August, having been forced to wait off China’s eastern coast, whilst the Gaslog Hong Kong is carrying a Sabine Pass LNG shipment that departed on 16th August.

East China

We currently see the East China region –comprising the wider Shanghai area and Zhejiang province – to receive 0.41mmt by 9th September. Zhoushan LNG is scheduled to receive 0.07mmt from Cameron LNG in the United States via the SK Resolute by 5th September. Moreover, we see one Australian and one Qatari cargo aboard the Barcelona Knutsen (0.05mmt) and the Q-Flex Al Karaana due at Zhejiang LNG by 9th September as well as a Nigerian cargo travelling to Qidong LNG via the GasLog Singapore (0.07mmt). At the time of writing the GasLog Singapore was indicating arrival on 3rd September. Finally, our data indicate Jiangsu LNG is due to receive one c argo each from Indonesia’s Tangguh plant and Australia’s NWS LNG facility by 4th September. The former is currently aboard the Tangguh Sago (0.07mmt) whilst the latter was shipped via the Asia Vision (0.06mmt).

South China

In the south of the country, we are currently expecting 0.40mmt to be delivered by 19th September, led by two Australian cargoes aboard the CESI Gladstone (0.08mmt) and the Dapeng Star (0.06mmt). We expect the two vessels to arrive at Sinopec’s Beihai and CNOOC’s Guangdong Dapeng LNG terminals by 7th September.

Russia had one cargo at sea to the South China region – sailing from Yamal LNG – and which we expect to arrive at Hainan LNG by 14th September. Nigeria’s Bonny Island facility, meanwhile, had a cargo en route to Beihai LNG via the LNG Abalamabie (0.07mmt). Finally, we see the Trinity Arrow (0.06mmt) delivering a Peruvian Pampa Melchorita LNG shipment to Zhuhai LNG by 1st September.

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